041
FXUS64 KOHX 041122
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
622 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 555 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A STORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STARTING TUESDAY, WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER TAGGING ALONG.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS WITH GLM
SHOWING NO ACTIVITY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH FOG DEVELOPING IN THE CLEAR AREAS. WE'LL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE VISIBILITY TRENDS FOR THE NEED OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE CUTOFF UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER THE AREA. MORE SHOWERS WILL PIVOT
AROUND THE LOW AND MOVE IN CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. CAMS HAVE ABOUT 200-
500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN FOURTH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. I DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER
LOW WILL HAVE ONLY MADE IT INTO KENTUCKY WHICH MEANS THE COOL
WEATHER AND SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER. THE COVERAGE WILL BE
LOWER THAN SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
BY TUESDAY THE MEANDERING LOW WILL FINALLY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
TO LEAVE US ALONE. SUN WILL RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S. THE BREAK FROM THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL
EJECT A WAVE LATE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THAT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
BUT BY THAT TIME, THE LARGE LOBE OF ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON OUR
DOORSTEP IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER MEANDERING CUTOFF LOW. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
MORNING, WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. SHOWER CHANCES WITH LITTLE
IMPACT, ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT WITH GUSTS TO 15KTS AS THEY BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY, THEN SUBSIDE AFTER 02Z TONIGHT.
IT DOESN'T APPEAR CIGS WILL IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
AND MVFR VIS IS ANTICIPATED AT SRB AND CSV LATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 49 66 50 / 60 20 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 59 48 65 49 / 50 30 10 0
CROSSVILLE 59 43 60 45 / 70 30 20 0
COLUMBIA 63 47 67 47 / 50 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 59 45 60 47 / 80 30 20 0
JAMESTOWN 60 43 60 45 / 70 40 40 0
LAWRENCEBURG 62 46 66 47 / 40 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 62 47 66 48 / 50 20 10 0
WAVERLY 62 46 65 47 / 40 20 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....05
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