943
FXUS64 KOHX 041623
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, BUT ALSO STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEK
AS WELL AS NEXT WEEKEND.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 8 DAYS. IN ADDITION, TOTAL QPF VALUES FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY RANGE FROM <1/4" ALONG THE KY STATE LINE TO
A LITTLE OVER 1" NEAR THE AL STATE LINE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY, AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATES TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH. OWING
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A NORTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE WE CLEAR OUT
AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
WE'LL GET TO ENJOY MAYBE 24 HOURS OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER BEFORE
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RESUME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED, WITH PERSISTENT LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS POPS, QPF
VALUES ARE REMARKABLY LOW. EXPECTED TOTALS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) RANGE FROM <1/4" ALONG THE KY LINE TO A
LITTLE OVER AN INCH NEAR THE AL STATE LINE. AND OWING TO
RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE'S
NOTHING THAT POINTS TO ANY SORT OF SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD WILL GRADUALLY WARM, BUT WILL
ALSO STAY WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF SEASONAL NORMALS. WE WON'T
BE GETTING ANY MAJOR FROPAS THAT WOULD HERALD A SIGNIFICANT AIR
MASS CHANGE, EVEN LOOKING OUT TO 10 DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
MORNING, WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. SHOWER CHANCES WITH LITTLE
IMPACT, ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT WITH GUSTS TO 15KTS AS THEY BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY, THEN SUBSIDE AFTER 02Z TONIGHT.
IT DOESN'T APPEAR CIGS WILL IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
AND MVFR VIS IS ANTICIPATED AT SRB AND CSV LATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 62 49 66 50 / 50 30 30 0
CLARKSVILLE 59 48 64 48 / 60 40 30 0
CROSSVILLE 59 42 60 44 / 50 30 40 0
COLUMBIA 63 48 66 48 / 40 20 10 0
COOKEVILLE 58 45 60 47 / 70 30 50 0
JAMESTOWN 60 43 60 44 / 70 40 70 10
LAWRENCEBURG 63 47 65 48 / 30 20 10 0
MURFREESBORO 62 48 65 47 / 50 30 20 0
WAVERLY 61 47 64 47 / 50 30 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....05
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