513
FXUS64 KOHX 041732
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, BUT ALSO STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEK
AS WELL AS NEXT WEEKEND.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 8 DAYS. IN ADDITION, TOTAL QPF VALUES FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY RANGE FROM <1/4" ALONG THE KY STATE LINE TO
A LITTLE OVER 1" NEAR THE AL STATE LINE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY, AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATES TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH. OWING
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A NORTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE WE CLEAR OUT
AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
WE'LL GET TO ENJOY MAYBE 24 HOURS OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER BEFORE
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RESUME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED, WITH PERSISTENT LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS POPS, QPF
VALUES ARE REMARKABLY LOW. EXPECTED TOTALS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) RANGE FROM <1/4" ALONG THE KY LINE TO A
LITTLE OVER AN INCH NEAR THE AL STATE LINE. AND OWING TO
RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE'S
NOTHING THAT POINTS TO ANY SORT OF SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD WILL GRADUALLY WARM, BUT WILL
ALSO STAY WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF SEASONAL NORMALS. WE WON'T
BE GETTING ANY MAJOR FROPAS THAT WOULD HERALD A SIGNIFICANT AIR
MASS CHANGE, EVEN LOOKING OUT TO 10 DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TN. MOST
TERMINALS ARE SEEING MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME BOUNCING
UP TO VFR FOR SHORT PERIODS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TERMINALS TO SEE CIGS DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAPPENING IS VERY LOW. NW WINDS ARE A LITTLE
GUSTY OUT THERE, BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT SW EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 49 66 50 76 / 30 30 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 64 48 75 / 40 30 0 0
CROSSVILLE 42 60 44 70 / 30 40 0 0
COLUMBIA 48 66 48 75 / 20 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 45 60 47 70 / 30 50 0 0
JAMESTOWN 43 60 44 70 / 40 70 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 47 65 48 74 / 20 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 48 65 47 75 / 30 20 0 0
WAVERLY 47 64 47 75 / 30 20 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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