351
FXUS64 KOHX 050338
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1038 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON TUESDAY, AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW THIS EVENING
WITH MODELS SHOWING THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING AND MAYBE SOME PEEKS OF SUN BY SUNSET. EVEN
WITH THE LOWER SHOWER COVERAGE AND PEEKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 60S. WE'LL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM
THE SHOWERY AND GLOOMY WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD
TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A WAVE WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE'LL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING SOUTH. AREAS ALONG THE
TN/AL STATE LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES BY,
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS AS THE BROAD UPPER LOW
OPENS AND WEAKENS TO OUR WEST. THE LEFTOVER ENERGY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THERE'S QUITE THE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS THAT PREVIOUS ENERGY
STILL STICKING AROUND THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS FAVOR
SOME RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING ON SATURDAY WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THE ENS MEMBERS FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION. REGARDLESS OF HOW IT PANS
OUT, I DON'T SEE ANY SEVERE THREATS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS OR
ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA HAS
IMPROVED TO VFR AT THIS TIME, CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN TO AT LEAST
MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF THAT ALONG THE PLATEAU AT KCSV AND KSRB.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE MONDAY, BUT A RETURN TO VFR IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE PLATEAU BY 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 49 66 50 76 / 30 30 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 47 64 47 75 / 50 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 43 60 44 70 / 40 40 0 0
COLUMBIA 47 67 48 75 / 30 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 46 61 46 70 / 40 40 0 0
JAMESTOWN 43 60 44 70 / 50 50 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 47 66 48 74 / 20 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 47 66 47 75 / 30 20 0 0
WAVERLY 46 65 47 75 / 40 20 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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