600
FXUS64 KOHX 050958
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
458 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 452 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON TUESDAY, AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL KY CONTINUES TO PUSH LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE LOW CENTER WILL
FINALLY START TO PULL TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON,
ENABLING THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TO BEGIN DRYING OUT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE GONE BY SUNSET, AND WE CAN ALSO LOOK FORWARD TO A
RAIN-FREE TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS
PRODUCING RAIN AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE DEFINITELY ON THE WAY STARTING TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW THIS EVENING
WITH MODELS SHOWING THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING AND MAYBE SOME PEEKS OF SUN BY SUNSET. EVEN
WITH THE LOWER SHOWER COVERAGE AND PEEKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 60S. WE'LL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM
THE SHOWERY AND GLOOMY WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD
TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A WAVE WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE'LL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING SOUTH. AREAS ALONG THE
TN/AL STATE LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES BY,
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS AS THE BROAD UPPER LOW
OPENS AND WEAKENS TO OUR WEST. THE LEFTOVER ENERGY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THERE'S QUITE THE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS THAT PREVIOUS ENERGY
STILL STICKING AROUND THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS FAVOR
SOME RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING ON SATURDAY WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THE ENS MEMBERS FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION. REGARDLESS OF HOW IT PANS
OUT, I DON'T SEE ANY SEVERE THREATS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS OR
ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
OVERNIGHT AS PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOME AREAS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, SO WE'LL BE WATCHING OUT FOR THAT, AS
WELL. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT
THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 50 75 56 / 20 0 0 20
CLARKSVILLE 64 48 74 54 / 20 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 59 44 69 48 / 40 10 0 10
COLUMBIA 66 47 74 55 / 10 10 10 30
COOKEVILLE 60 46 69 50 / 30 10 0 10
JAMESTOWN 59 44 69 47 / 50 10 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 65 47 74 55 / 10 10 10 30
MURFREESBORO 64 47 74 53 / 20 0 0 20
WAVERLY 64 47 74 55 / 10 0 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....ROSE
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