520
FXUS64 KOHX 051132
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON TUESDAY, AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW THIS EVENING
WITH MODELS SHOWING THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING AND MAYBE SOME PEEKS OF SUN BY SUNSET. EVEN
WITH THE LOWER SHOWER COVERAGE AND PEEKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 60S. WE'LL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM
THE SHOWERY AND GLOOMY WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD
TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A WAVE WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE'LL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING SOUTH. AREAS ALONG THE
TN/AL STATE LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES BY,
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS AS THE BROAD UPPER LOW
OPENS AND WEAKENS TO OUR WEST. THE LEFTOVER ENERGY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THERE'S QUITE THE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS THAT PREVIOUS ENERGY
STILL STICKING AROUND THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS FAVOR
SOME RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING ON SATURDAY WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THE ENS MEMBERS FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION. REGARDLESS OF HOW IT PANS
OUT, I DON'T SEE ANY SEVERE THREATS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS OR
ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AS A PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL KY. THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON, TAKING WITH IT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT
IS GIVING US THE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. UNTIL THEN, LOOK
FOR MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, FINALLY SCATTERING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, EXPECT RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE
SMALLEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 50 75 56 / 20 0 0 20
CLARKSVILLE 64 48 74 54 / 20 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 59 44 69 48 / 40 10 0 10
COLUMBIA 66 47 74 55 / 10 10 10 30
COOKEVILLE 60 46 69 50 / 30 10 0 10
JAMESTOWN 59 44 69 47 / 50 10 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 65 47 74 55 / 10 10 10 30
MURFREESBORO 64 47 74 53 / 20 0 0 20
WAVERLY 64 47 74 55 / 10 0 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....ROSE
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