462
FXUS64 KOHX 051614
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1114 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- GLOOMY WEEK AHEAD WITH MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS. NO
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE STUCK IN KENTUCKY LONGER THAN
EXPECTED. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STICKING AROUND.
IDEALLY, THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
WITH RAIN CHANCES EXITING WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE, BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY, SKY COVER
WILL BE PRETTY GLOOMY. SOME PEEKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY, BUT CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WESTERN LOW FROM
THE OMEGA BLOCK TRANSITIONING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS AN OPEN WAVE.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT LATER WITH TIMING THAN PREVIOUSLY (WAS
SHOWING TUESDAY NIGHT, NOW WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON). THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TN/AL STATE LINE, BUT SOME OF
OUR COUNTIES ON THAT BORDER SHOULD EXPECT SOME HIGHER TOTALS. SOUTH
OF HWY 64, PROBABILITIES OF 1" OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION ARE 20-25%.
ELSEWHERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, <20%. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40
LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OF QPF, BUT PROBABILITIES OF 0.5" ARE
10-30% (WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING CLOSE TO THE TN/AL BORDER, AND
LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER).
THE PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SOME SUN
LOOKS TO FINALLY PEEK THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH HOPEFULLY A
CLEAR AND SUNNY WEEKEND ON TAP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AS A PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL KY. THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON, TAKING WITH IT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT
IS GIVING US THE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. UNTIL THEN, LOOK
FOR MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, FINALLY SCATTERING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, EXPECT RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE
SMALLEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 50 75 56 / 20 0 0 50
CLARKSVILLE 64 47 73 55 / 20 0 0 40
CROSSVILLE 59 43 69 48 / 30 0 0 30
COLUMBIA 66 47 75 55 / 10 0 0 60
COOKEVILLE 60 46 69 50 / 40 0 0 40
JAMESTOWN 59 43 69 47 / 40 0 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 65 47 73 55 / 10 0 0 60
MURFREESBORO 64 47 75 54 / 20 0 0 50
WAVERLY 64 46 74 56 / 10 0 0 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....ROSE
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