017
FXUS64 KOHX 051728
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- GLOOMY WEEK AHEAD WITH MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS. NO
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE STUCK IN KENTUCKY LONGER THAN
EXPECTED. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STICKING AROUND.
IDEALLY, THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
WITH RAIN CHANCES EXITING WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE, BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY, SKY COVER
WILL BE PRETTY GLOOMY. SOME PEEKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY, BUT CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WESTERN LOW FROM
THE OMEGA BLOCK TRANSITIONING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS AN OPEN WAVE.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT LATER WITH TIMING THAN PREVIOUSLY (WAS
SHOWING TUESDAY NIGHT, NOW WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON). THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TN/AL STATE LINE, BUT SOME OF
OUR COUNTIES ON THAT BORDER SHOULD EXPECT SOME HIGHER TOTALS. SOUTH
OF HWY 64, PROBABILITIES OF 1" OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION ARE 20-25%.
ELSEWHERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, <20%. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40
LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OF QPF, BUT PROBABILITIES OF 0.5" ARE
10-30% (WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING CLOSE TO THE TN/AL BORDER, AND
LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER).
THE PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SOME SUN
LOOKS TO FINALLY PEEK THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH HOPEFULLY A
CLEAR AND SUNNY WEEKEND ON TAP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL MID-STATE TERMINALS UNTIL 20-21Z
AND WHILE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, AN OVC CLOUD DECK WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD DROP BACK TO MVFR AROUND
08Z/TUE FOR CSV/SRB BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR TUESDAY AROUND 15Z.
WEST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 50 75 56 74 / 0 0 50 50
CLARKSVILLE 47 73 55 72 / 0 0 40 40
CROSSVILLE 43 69 48 67 / 0 0 30 50
COLUMBIA 47 75 55 69 / 0 0 60 60
COOKEVILLE 46 69 50 69 / 0 0 40 40
JAMESTOWN 43 69 47 71 / 0 0 20 30
LAWRENCEBURG 47 73 55 69 / 0 0 60 60
MURFREESBORO 47 75 54 71 / 0 0 50 50
WAVERLY 46 74 56 70 / 0 0 50 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....UNGER
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