078
FXUS64 KOHX 052337
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
637 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- GLOOMY WEEK AHEAD WITH MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS. NO
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHERN KY, BUT
IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO,
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR. CALM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND MAY
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER
WON'T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT WHICH LESSENS CONFIDENCE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT MAY BE. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE, AND A NICE DAY THEN LOOKS TO BE
IN STORE WITH WEAK RIDGING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE LOW AND MID-70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE STUCK IN KENTUCKY LONGER THAN
EXPECTED. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STICKING AROUND.
IDEALLY, THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
WITH RAIN CHANCES EXITING WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE, BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY, SKY COVER
WILL BE PRETTY GLOOMY. SOME PEEKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY, BUT CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WESTERN LOW FROM
THE OMEGA BLOCK TRANSITIONING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS AN OPEN WAVE.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT LATER WITH TIMING THAN PREVIOUSLY (WAS
SHOWING TUESDAY NIGHT, NOW WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON). THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TN/AL STATE LINE, BUT SOME OF
OUR COUNTIES ON THAT BORDER SHOULD EXPECT SOME HIGHER TOTALS. SOUTH
OF HWY 64, PROBABILITIES OF 1" OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION ARE 20-25%.
ELSEWHERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, <20%. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40
LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OF QPF, BUT PROBABILITIES OF 0.5" ARE
10-30% (WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING CLOSE TO THE TN/AL BORDER, AND
LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER).
THE PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SOME SUN
LOOKS TO FINALLY PEEK THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH HOPEFULLY A
CLEAR AND SUNNY WEEKEND ON TAP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS ARE
POINTING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW HOWEVER DUE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT, MVFR VIS WAS ADDED TO ALL
TAF SITES FROM 09-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
AFTER 13Z WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 50 76 57 74 / 0 0 10 50
CLARKSVILLE 47 74 54 72 / 0 0 10 40
CROSSVILLE 43 69 48 67 / 10 0 10 50
COLUMBIA 47 75 55 69 / 0 0 30 60
COOKEVILLE 46 70 51 69 / 0 0 0 40
JAMESTOWN 43 69 47 71 / 10 0 0 30
LAWRENCEBURG 47 73 55 69 / 0 0 30 60
MURFREESBORO 47 75 54 71 / 0 0 10 50
WAVERLY 47 74 56 70 / 0 0 20 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....REAGAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page