872
FXUS64 KOHX 060342
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1029 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STALLED UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE KY/OH
BORDER THIS EVENING, AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE FINALLY EXITS OUR AREA,
OUR RAIN CHANCES HAVE COME TO AN END, AND SKIES ARE SLOWLY CLEARING.
HOWEVER, WE WON'T BE COMPLETELY CLOUD-FREE TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM INTO THE AREA. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WE'LL BE
WATCHING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN WHETHER OR NOT IT DEVELOPS AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT MAY
BECOME DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THOSE HIGH CLOUDS. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. WE ARE THEN IN FOR A PRETTY
NICE TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID-70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THOUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN TX AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. WE'LL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS WAVE WHICH
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-40 AND DECREASE TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. ONCE
THIS WAVE EXITS THE AREA, OUR WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST AND WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE. AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY EAST, THIS KEEPS ABOUT 40-60% RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
FROM HERE, A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN LENDS ITSELF TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST US
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. ENSEMBLES
REMAIN SPLIT IN WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR OWN RAIN CHANCES AND
WHETHER WE CAN ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF EITHER SYSTEM. WITH THE
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN, A LOW RAIN CHANCE IS MAINTAINED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THREATS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS ARE
POINTING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW HOWEVER DUE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT, MVFR VIS WAS ADDED TO ALL
TAF SITES FROM 09-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
AFTER 13Z WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 50 76 57 74 / 0 0 10 50
CLARKSVILLE 47 74 54 72 / 0 0 10 40
CROSSVILLE 43 69 48 67 / 10 0 10 50
COLUMBIA 47 75 55 69 / 0 0 30 60
COOKEVILLE 46 70 51 69 / 0 0 0 40
JAMESTOWN 43 69 47 71 / 10 0 0 30
LAWRENCEBURG 47 73 55 69 / 0 0 30 60
MURFREESBORO 47 75 54 71 / 0 0 10 50
WAVERLY 47 74 56 70 / 0 0 20 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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