863
FXUS64 KOHX 060529
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1229 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STALLED UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE KY/OH
BORDER THIS EVENING, AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE FINALLY EXITS OUR AREA,
OUR RAIN CHANCES HAVE COME TO AN END, AND SKIES ARE SLOWLY CLEARING.
HOWEVER, WE WON'T BE COMPLETELY CLOUD-FREE TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM INTO THE AREA. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WE'LL BE
WATCHING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN WHETHER OR NOT IT DEVELOPS AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT MAY
BECOME DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THOSE HIGH CLOUDS. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. WE ARE THEN IN FOR A PRETTY
NICE TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID-70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THOUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN TX AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. WE'LL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS WAVE WHICH
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-40 AND DECREASE TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. ONCE
THIS WAVE EXITS THE AREA, OUR WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST AND WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE. AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY EAST, THIS KEEPS ABOUT 40-60% RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
FROM HERE, A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN LENDS ITSELF TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST US
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. ENSEMBLES
REMAIN SPLIT IN WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR OWN RAIN CHANCES AND
WHETHER WE CAN ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF EITHER SYSTEM. WITH THE
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN, A LOW RAIN CHANCE IS MAINTAINED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THREATS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS STARTING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVER
WATERWAYS, HOWEVER, WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. MVFR FOG IS IN THE TAF AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN
08Z-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 57 72 60 / 0 20 60 30
CLARKSVILLE 74 54 71 58 / 0 10 50 20
CROSSVILLE 69 49 67 54 / 0 10 40 30
COLUMBIA 75 56 70 59 / 0 30 70 30
COOKEVILLE 70 51 69 56 / 0 10 20 30
JAMESTOWN 69 47 70 53 / 0 0 10 30
LAWRENCEBURG 74 55 69 58 / 0 40 70 30
MURFREESBORO 74 54 71 58 / 0 20 70 30
WAVERLY 74 56 70 58 / 0 30 60 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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