353
FXUS64 KOHX 062339
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
639 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
AFTER A FANTASTIC DAY OF SUN AND GREAT TEMPERATURES, WE'RE QUICKLY
MOVING BACK IN COPIOUS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
COMING DAYS. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO ENCROACH MIDDLE
TN AND THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AND
BE WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE AROUND
ON THURSDAY, THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETTER.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS POINT, BUT ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL CARRY A SMALL RISK OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WE'LL
HAVE A FRESH SET OF GUIDANCE HANDED TO US THIS EVENING AND I'LL
TALK MORE ABOUT ANY SEVERE CHANCES THURSDAY IN THIS EVENING'S FULL
FORECAST PACKAGE. ENJOY THE EVENING!
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
TODAY IS THE DAY, WHAT MOST OF US HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR, THE
RETURN OF SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER! UNFORTUNATELY, THE SUNNY AND
DRY WEATHER WILL LEAVE US BY TOMORROW, AT LEAST TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER MIDDLE TN, HENCE THE CLEAR AND DRY
WEATHER TODAY. A MID-LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND WILL WEAKEN INTO A SHORTWAVE, PUSHING THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN, BUT
HOLD IT'S GROUND. THIS WILL CAUSE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN TO OUR SW ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WE WILL STILL SEE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
OUR RIDGING ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH, EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST DOWN TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, DEEPENS AND STALLS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THAT SAID,
WE STILL COULD SEE SOME GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS
TIME, THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LOWERS CHANCES FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THESE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 16Z AND
18Z WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT-AND-
MISS WITH CONFIDENCE LOW IN ANY IMPACTS TO TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 57 71 61 77 / 20 60 20 60
CLARKSVILLE 55 71 58 76 / 10 50 20 40
CROSSVILLE 49 64 55 74 / 20 50 30 60
COLUMBIA 57 69 60 77 / 40 60 10 60
COOKEVILLE 52 67 56 75 / 20 50 30 60
JAMESTOWN 48 67 54 75 / 10 40 20 60
LAWRENCEBURG 56 68 60 76 / 40 60 10 50
MURFREESBORO 55 69 59 78 / 30 60 20 50
WAVERLY 56 69 59 76 / 30 60 20 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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