306
FXUS64 KOHX 070416
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1116 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1111 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
AFTER A FANTASTICALLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, TODAY WILL BE LOOKED AT AS BUT A BLIP IN THE
MATRIX -- ONE LONE DAY WITHOUT ANY POPS, AMONGST MANY WITH RAIN
CHANCES. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVER THE MID-STATE OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE RADAR REVEALS LIGHT
RAIN TRYING TO ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS PART OF SOME MID-
LEVEL ENERGY SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, THIS WILL BE OUR WEATHER
MAKER FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CAMS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RAIN COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT RAIN TO BE FOCUSED OVER OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THEN, BY MID-MORNING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SCATTERED RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT, AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY AND THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY SLIPS CLOSER TO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS, WE'LL HAVE
A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITHOUT ANY RAIN THURSDAY MORNING, THIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT AMOUNTS OF CAPE TO BUILD FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FORTUNATELY, WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW, SHEAR
VALUES ARE MEAGER. WITH ONLY 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND NO
INDICATION OF NECESSARY HELICITIES, UPDRAFTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO BE
MAINTAINED. FOR THIS REASON, WE'LL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A BRIEF
MENTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IF HELICITY VALUES
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, WE'LL HAVE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HOVER AROUND 7.0 DEG/KM.
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THURSDAY'S
UPPER LOW COULD BE THE CULPRIT IN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER WHAT MIGHT END UP BEING A DRY
FRIDAY, BOTH EURO AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CLOSING
OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND HANGING AROUND THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND
IT COULD BE TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE
AREA. THAT MEANS RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY AND IF THIS VERIFIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD, AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THESE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 16Z AND
18Z WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT-AND-
MISS WITH CONFIDENCE LOW IN ANY IMPACTS TO TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 57 71 61 78 / 20 60 20 60
CLARKSVILLE 55 71 58 76 / 10 50 20 40
CROSSVILLE 49 64 55 73 / 20 50 30 60
COLUMBIA 57 69 60 79 / 40 60 10 60
COOKEVILLE 52 67 56 74 / 20 50 30 60
JAMESTOWN 48 67 54 73 / 10 40 20 60
LAWRENCEBURG 56 68 60 78 / 40 60 10 50
MURFREESBORO 55 69 59 79 / 30 60 20 50
WAVERLY 56 69 59 76 / 30 60 20 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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