727
FXUS64 KOHX 070529
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1229 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
AFTER A FANTASTICALLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, TODAY WILL BE LOOKED AT AS BUT A BLIP IN THE
MATRIX -- ONE LONE DAY WITHOUT ANY POPS, AMONGST MANY WITH RAIN
CHANCES. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVER THE MID-STATE OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE RADAR REVEALS LIGHT
RAIN TRYING TO ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS PART OF SOME MID-
LEVEL ENERGY SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, THIS WILL BE OUR WEATHER
MAKER FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CAMS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RAIN COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT RAIN TO BE FOCUSED OVER OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THEN, BY MID-MORNING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SCATTERED RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT, AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY AND THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY SLIPS CLOSER TO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS, WE'LL HAVE
A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITHOUT ANY RAIN THURSDAY MORNING, THIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT AMOUNTS OF CAPE TO BUILD FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FORTUNATELY, WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW, SHEAR
VALUES ARE MEAGER. WITH ONLY 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND NO
INDICATION OF NECESSARY HELICITIES, UPDRAFTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO BE
MAINTAINED. FOR THIS REASON, WE'LL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A BRIEF
MENTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IF HELICITY VALUES
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, WE'LL HAVE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HOVER AROUND 7.0 DEG/KM.
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THURSDAY'S
UPPER LOW COULD BE THE CULPRIT IN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER WHAT MIGHT END UP BEING A DRY
FRIDAY, BOTH EURO AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CLOSING
OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND HANGING AROUND THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND
IT COULD BE TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE
AREA. THAT MEANS RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY AND IF THIS VERIFIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD, AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BUT LOOKS TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING AFTER 13Z. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO
CAPTURE THIS ACTIVITY. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR BEHIND THE RAIN,
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 61 78 60 / 60 20 60 30
CLARKSVILLE 71 58 76 57 / 50 20 40 30
CROSSVILLE 64 55 73 54 / 50 30 60 30
COLUMBIA 69 60 79 58 / 60 10 60 40
COOKEVILLE 67 56 74 57 / 50 30 60 30
JAMESTOWN 67 54 73 54 / 40 20 60 30
LAWRENCEBURG 68 60 78 58 / 60 10 50 40
MURFREESBORO 69 59 79 58 / 60 20 50 30
WAVERLY 69 59 76 57 / 60 20 50 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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