258
FXUS64 KOHX 071554
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1054 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GET INTO THE WARMER
PART OF THE DAY, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TODAY'S
SYSTEM. HEADING INTO TOMORROW, THE ACTUAL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA. SHEAR IN THE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY WEAK. CAPE COULD BE OK IF
SOME SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
A CAP PRESENT WHICH MEANS SOME KIND OF FORCING WOULD NEED TO ERODE
IT (IE: SUNSHINE). MAIN THREAT FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BE HAIL
IF A SEVERE THREAT PRESENTS ITSELF. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW, PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRESENT IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TOTAL RAINFALL DOESN'T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT I WOULD EXPECT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INFLUENCE OVERALL AMOUNTS RECEIVED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AS IT
CLOSES AND SPINS OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AS YOU GET CLOSE
TO THE TN/AL BORDER, TOTAL PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TEETERS
MORE TOWARDS 0.5" BUT THAT DECREASES TO 0.25" AS YOU MOVE NORTH TO
THE KY/TN BORDER. STARTING THE NEW WORK WEEK, THE CLOSED LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS, ACCUMULATING AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INCREASING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE, BUT A DECK OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR AFTER 16Z AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
SPORADICALLY DEVELOP. THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW TODAY, GENERALLY 20%
OR LESS, SO THERE IS NO MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 70 62 78 59 / 70 40 80 40
CLARKSVILLE 70 60 76 57 / 40 50 70 40
CROSSVILLE 63 55 73 54 / 60 40 80 50
COLUMBIA 69 61 78 58 / 80 40 60 40
COOKEVILLE 66 58 75 56 / 60 40 80 60
JAMESTOWN 67 55 74 53 / 50 40 80 40
LAWRENCEBURG 68 61 78 58 / 80 30 60 50
MURFREESBORO 69 60 79 58 / 70 30 70 50
WAVERLY 68 60 76 57 / 60 30 70 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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