430
FXUS64 KOHX 072340
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
640 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
CLOUDS PREVAIL OVER MIDDLE TN AT UPDATE TIME AND WHILE THE RADAR
HAS BEEN PRETTY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON, A QUICK LOOK DOES SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TN. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PRESENT SOME PAVEMENT
WETTERS FOR SOME. IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT, BUT KNOW THAT IF YOU'RE
HEADED OUT THIS EVENING, SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE. CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT CAPE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, SO NO
THUNDER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
PRETTY STEADY FROM WHERE THEY CURRENTLY ARE, AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GET INTO THE WARMER
PART OF THE DAY, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TODAY'S
SYSTEM. HEADING INTO TOMORROW, THE ACTUAL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA. SHEAR IN THE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY WEAK. CAPE COULD BE OK IF
SOME SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
A CAP PRESENT WHICH MEANS SOME KIND OF FORCING WOULD NEED TO ERODE
IT (IE: SUNSHINE). MAIN THREAT FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BE HAIL
IF A SEVERE THREAT PRESENTS ITSELF. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW, PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRESENT IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TOTAL RAINFALL DOESN'T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT I WOULD EXPECT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INFLUENCE OVERALL AMOUNTS RECEIVED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AS IT
CLOSES AND SPINS OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AS YOU GET CLOSE
TO THE TN/AL BORDER, TOTAL PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TEETERS
MORE TOWARDS 0.5" BUT THAT DECREASES TO 0.25" AS YOU MOVE NORTH TO
THE KY/TN BORDER. STARTING THE NEW WORK WEEK, THE CLOSED LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS, ACCUMULATING AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INCREASING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
SHOWER CHANCES HAVE DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER AND WILL BECOME IFR. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR TERMINALS TO
SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER ON THIS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, GENERALLY UNDER 8
KNOTS. AFTER 18Z THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN, BUT COVERAGE DOESN'T LOOK WIDESPREAD. OPTED TO INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP IN LATEST SET OF TAFS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 62 78 59 74 / 30 80 40 40
CLARKSVILLE 60 76 57 72 / 30 70 40 20
CROSSVILLE 55 73 54 71 / 30 80 50 50
COLUMBIA 61 78 58 73 / 30 60 40 40
COOKEVILLE 58 75 56 71 / 30 80 60 40
JAMESTOWN 55 74 53 71 / 30 80 40 40
LAWRENCEBURG 61 78 58 73 / 30 60 50 40
MURFREESBORO 60 79 58 74 / 30 70 50 40
WAVERLY 60 76 57 72 / 30 70 40 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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