231
FXUS64 KOHX 080527
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1227 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, LOW CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEDIUM CHANCE OF STRONG STORM
OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
CLOUDS, LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THAT'S THE STORY AT FORECAST TIME
FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TN AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT, AS
WELL. IF THERE'S ANY EXCEPTION, THERE ARE A FEW PATCHES OF CLEAR
SKY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PLACES THAT SEE CLEARING FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG, BUT EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR THIS TO BE PATCHY, AT BEST.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER
HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS TROUGH
SLIPS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR US TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ALLOWING FOR OUR ATMOSPHERE
TO DESTABILIZE AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TYPICALLY, THIS
WOULD SPELL A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, BUT
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND A VERY DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT, WIND SHEAR IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO COME BY
TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR, BUT EVEN
WITH THE FRONT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM, UPDRAFTS ARE GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN DUE TO VERY LIMITED HELICITY VALUES. SO,
WE'LL GO FOR A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TAKING
MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. IT ISN'T UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND STARTS TO LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH WHEN OUR RAIN CHANCES START TO INCREASE AGAIN. THAT MEANS
MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE REALLY NICE WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HOWEVER, I CAN'T
SAY THE SAME FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRIVE UP RAIN CHANCES ALL 3 DAYS. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY WHEN WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS BASICALLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LIMITED SHEAR ONCE AGAIN, SO FOR NOW, TOMORROW
LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY DAY OVER THE NEXT 7 WITH ANY SEVERE CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. CIGS ARE
LARGELY IN LOW IFR OR LIFR CATEGORY AND WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS, PATCHY DENSE FOG IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL LIFT TO 3500FT AFTER 18Z, BUT STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE POP UP STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THEIR SPORADIC NATURE, PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN THE
TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, PICKING UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z TO 5-7KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 78 59 74 52 / 80 40 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 76 57 72 49 / 70 40 20 0
CROSSVILLE 73 54 71 48 / 80 50 50 10
COLUMBIA 78 58 73 52 / 60 40 40 10
COOKEVILLE 75 56 71 50 / 80 60 40 10
JAMESTOWN 74 53 71 46 / 80 40 40 0
LAWRENCEBURG 78 58 72 52 / 60 50 40 10
MURFREESBORO 79 58 74 52 / 70 50 40 10
WAVERLY 76 57 72 50 / 70 40 30 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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