952
FXUS64 KOHX 081124
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, LOW CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEDIUM CHANCE OF STRONG STORM
OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
CLOUDS, LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THAT'S THE STORY AT FORECAST TIME
FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TN AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT, AS
WELL. IF THERE'S ANY EXCEPTION, THERE ARE A FEW PATCHES OF CLEAR
SKY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PLACES THAT SEE CLEARING FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG, BUT EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR THIS TO BE PATCHY, AT BEST.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER
HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS TROUGH
SLIPS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR US TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ALLOWING FOR OUR ATMOSPHERE
TO DESTABILIZE AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TYPICALLY, THIS
WOULD SPELL A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, BUT
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND A VERY DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT, WIND SHEAR IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO COME BY
TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR, BUT EVEN
WITH THE FRONT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM, UPDRAFTS ARE GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN DUE TO VERY LIMITED HELICITY VALUES. SO,
WE'LL GO FOR A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TAKING
MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. IT ISN'T UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND STARTS TO LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH WHEN OUR RAIN CHANCES START TO INCREASE AGAIN. THAT MEANS
MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE REALLY NICE WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HOWEVER, I CAN'T
SAY THE SAME FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRIVE UP RAIN CHANCES ALL 3 DAYS. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY WHEN WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS BASICALLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LIMITED SHEAR ONCE AGAIN, SO FOR NOW, TOMORROW
LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY DAY OVER THE NEXT 7 WITH ANY SEVERE CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
WE WILL SEE POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW CIGS
AND VIS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE AS THE MORNING GOES ON AND WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER 18Z IN THE WEST AND WORK EAST THROUGH
05Z. IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LOW
VIS AND LOW CIGS. IFR/LIFR CIGS BUILD BACK IN LATER IN THE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS AFTER 08Z AND WILL
BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL
SHIFT NORTH AFTER 00Z AND BECOME LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 78 59 73 51 / 80 40 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 76 57 72 48 / 80 30 10 0
CROSSVILLE 75 54 70 46 / 80 50 30 0
COLUMBIA 79 57 73 50 / 80 40 20 10
COOKEVILLE 76 55 70 47 / 80 50 20 0
JAMESTOWN 75 53 69 44 / 80 50 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 79 57 73 50 / 70 40 20 10
MURFREESBORO 80 58 73 49 / 80 40 20 10
WAVERLY 76 56 73 49 / 80 30 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ056>058-
060-061-093>095.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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