966
FXUS64 KOHX 082314
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- SEVERE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
EAST OF I-65 UNTIL 8 PM.
- FORECAST HAS IMPROVED FOR THE WEEKEND, NOW EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
RAIN-FREE WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
ALMOST ALL OF THE MID STATE REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A SETUP WHERE NO
SINGLE FORECAST PARAMETER JUMPS OUT WITH EXTREME VALUES, BUT THERE
ARE SEVERAL PARAMETERS, THAT TAKEN TOGETHER, ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO
BRING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WE HAVE HELD ONTO A LOT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING, BUT
THINGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO MIX OUT AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
SOME STORMS FIRE UP OVER WEST TN. AS MORE SUNSHINE IS REVEALED,
CAPES SHOULD CLIMB TO "MODERATE LEVELS" 1500-2000 J/KG. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY
DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH TORNADO RISK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AN INVERTED V APPEARANCE INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WET BULB ZERO LEVEL BELOW 9KFT
AND ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL PARAMETER VALUES SUPPORT POSSIBILITY
OF HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
FALLING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE
SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM SHORTLY
AFTER NOON IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, THEN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND SHIFT EASTWARD, PERHAPS COMING TOGETHER AS AN MCS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA BY 6 PM. IT LOOKS LIKE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 35 MPH.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 10
PM. GIVEN A LOT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY SLUGGISH
FRONTAL PUSH, THERE WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY WILL START WITH AREAS OF FOG AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY, DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH STRONGER, DRIER NORTH WINDS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE DAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
A NOTABLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A BETTER, DRIER
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE ZONE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND IMPACTS FROM ANOTHER CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
FORECAST SHOWS SOME SMALL POPS CREEPING UP INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY,
BUT MOST OF US WILL PROBABLY ENJOY A COMPLETELY RAIN-FREE WEEKEND.
NORMAL HIGHS NOW ARE IN THE 70S WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. WE WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEKEND,
BUT I THINK MOST WOULD CALL IT VERY PLEASANT. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND SATURDAY, SO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
MIGHT FEEL JUST A BIT CHILLY.
THE SECOND UPPER LOW MENTIONED EARLIER WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED SHOWERY WX. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
THUNDER EACH DAY, BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.
LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT AND HEIGHTS WILL
RISK, ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO DROP AND HIGH TEMPS TO JUMP UP
WELL INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED CKV AND WILL CLEAR THE
OTHER TERMINALS PRIOR TO 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. CSV/SRB COULD BE
IMPACTED BY A STORM PRIOR TO 03Z WHICH COULD DROP VIS TO IFR. ONCE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OUT OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, LOW STRATUS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WHICH
COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR/IFR. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY 18Z AT ALL
SITES. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFT TO THE NW/N AT CKV/BNA/MQY AND
WILL SHIFT AT CSV AND SRB BY 03Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY ON
FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 58 74 50 74 / 40 10 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 57 73 48 73 / 30 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 53 69 45 70 / 70 20 10 10
COLUMBIA 57 73 49 72 / 30 20 10 10
COOKEVILLE 56 70 47 71 / 60 10 0 10
JAMESTOWN 53 69 44 70 / 70 20 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 57 73 49 72 / 40 10 10 10
MURFREESBORO 57 73 49 73 / 40 10 10 10
WAVERLY 56 73 49 72 / 30 10 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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