053
FXUS64 KOHX 090354
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1054 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
DISSIPATE BY 9AM FRIDAY.
- DRY SATURDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
BESIDES A FEW SPRINKLES, THE AREA IS DRY NOW AFTER AN ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE DEVELOPING WHERE THE
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING AS WELL. THE
LOW STRATUS DECK MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, BUT WE'LL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS. THE LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD FINALLY MIX OUT AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE GETTING PINCHED
OFF ON FRIDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON SATURDAY
TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE TN/AL STATE LINE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA BRINGING BACK RAIN
CHANCES. THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ITS TIME MEANDERING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN THURSDAY
WHICH WILL END THE RAIN CHANCES BUT ALSO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED CKV AND WILL CLEAR THE
OTHER TERMINALS PRIOR TO 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. CSV/SRB COULD BE
IMPACTED BY A STORM PRIOR TO 03Z WHICH COULD DROP VIS TO IFR. ONCE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OUT OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, LOW STRATUS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WHICH
COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR/IFR. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY 18Z AT ALL
SITES. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFT TO THE NW/N AT CKV/BNA/MQY AND
WILL SHIFT AT CSV AND SRB BY 03Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY ON
FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 58 74 51 74 / 40 10 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 57 73 48 73 / 30 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 53 70 46 70 / 60 20 0 10
COLUMBIA 57 73 50 72 / 30 10 0 10
COOKEVILLE 55 71 48 71 / 60 10 0 10
JAMESTOWN 53 70 44 70 / 70 10 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 56 73 50 72 / 40 10 0 10
MURFREESBORO 57 74 50 73 / 40 10 0 10
WAVERLY 56 73 49 72 / 20 10 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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