844
FXUS64 KOHX 090527
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1227 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
DISSIPATE BY 9AM FRIDAY.
- DRY SATURDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
BESIDES A FEW SPRINKLES, THE AREA IS DRY NOW AFTER AN ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE DEVELOPING WHERE THE
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING AS WELL. THE
LOW STRATUS DECK MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, BUT WE'LL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS. THE LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD FINALLY MIX OUT AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE GETTING PINCHED
OFF ON FRIDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON SATURDAY
TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE TN/AL STATE LINE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA BRINGING BACK RAIN
CHANCES. THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ITS TIME MEANDERING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN THURSDAY
WHICH WILL END THE RAIN CHANCES BUT ALSO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL PLAGUE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z. MODELS ARE NOT
IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BRINGING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN, AND OTHERS KEEPING HIGH
CLOUDS. HAVE WENT WITH IFR CIGS STARTING AT 09Z BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. IF CLOUDS DO NOT BUILD IN, FOG WILL BE THICK AND MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH VERY LIMITED VIS.
ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE, AND THE REMAINDER
OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 51 73 55 / 10 0 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 48 72 53 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 70 46 70 52 / 20 0 10 20
COLUMBIA 73 50 71 55 / 10 0 10 20
COOKEVILLE 71 48 71 54 / 10 0 10 10
JAMESTOWN 70 44 70 51 / 10 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 73 50 71 55 / 10 0 10 30
MURFREESBORO 74 50 73 55 / 10 0 10 20
WAVERLY 73 49 71 54 / 10 0 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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