148
FXUS64 KOHX 091549
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1049 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
- DRY SATURDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SUBSTANCE JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH IS TRAPPING MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVEL AND
BROUGHT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH IN DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT
THE LOW CLOUDS, ALWAYS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS WILL
HAPPEN BUT WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BUT IF THE LOW
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THESE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE QUIET CONDITIONS AND WITH
THE DRIER AIR SETTLING IN IT WILL BE A CHILLY AS LOWS FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TX WILL PUSH EAST AND BECOMING A
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STALL OUT OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALWAYS STRUGGLE WITH THIS SET UP AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST QUITE A BIT DAY TO DAY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN
CHANCES CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE FORECAST PERIOD. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND THAT
WILL BRING A NICE DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION AND THAT WILL LIMIT
OVERALL SUNSHINE. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY SNEAK INTO FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
THE STALLED OUT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY
AND THIS WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 1000 J/KG. OVERALL PROFILES ARE NOT GOING TO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY POOR LAPSE RATES BUT BULK SHEAR WILL
PUSH TO 25-35 KNOTS. RIGHT NOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING
UNLIKELY BUT AFTERNOON THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL START TO LIFT OUT OF TN ON TUESDAY BUT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN SETS UP FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH THEM
WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WE MAY EVEN
SEE SOME LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NBM IS GIVING A
30-60% CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHS 90+ NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG THAT ARE BRINGING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING UNTIL 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY INCREASING TO
6-12 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 19 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 51 73 56 / 0 0 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 73 48 72 53 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 71 47 71 53 / 0 0 10 20
COLUMBIA 74 51 72 56 / 10 0 20 30
COOKEVILLE 71 48 71 54 / 0 0 10 20
JAMESTOWN 70 45 71 51 / 0 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 74 51 72 56 / 0 0 20 30
MURFREESBORO 75 51 73 56 / 0 0 10 20
WAVERLY 73 49 71 54 / 0 0 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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