216
FXUS64 KOHX 092255
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
555 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 546 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
- DRY SATURDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
IT'S TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
SOME SUNSHINE PEEKING THROUGH A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY. YOU
MIGHT NEED A JACKET FOR THOSE EARLY MORNING SOCCER GAMES, BUT
DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
COUNTIES ALONG THE TN/AL STATE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SUBSTANCE JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH IS TRAPPING MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVEL AND
BROUGHT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH IN DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT
THE LOW CLOUDS, ALWAYS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS WILL
HAPPEN BUT WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BUT IF THE LOW
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THESE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE QUIET CONDITIONS AND WITH
THE DRIER AIR SETTLING IN IT WILL BE A CHILLY AS LOWS FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TX WILL PUSH EAST AND BECOMING A
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STALL OUT OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALWAYS STRUGGLE WITH THIS SET UP AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST QUITE A BIT DAY TO DAY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN
CHANCES CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE FORECAST PERIOD. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND THAT
WILL BRING A NICE DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION AND THAT WILL LIMIT
OVERALL SUNSHINE. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY SNEAK INTO FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
THE STALLED OUT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY
AND THIS WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 1000 J/KG. OVERALL PROFILES ARE NOT GOING TO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY POOR LAPSE RATES BUT BULK SHEAR WILL
PUSH TO 25-35 KNOTS. RIGHT NOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING
UNLIKELY BUT AFTERNOON THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL START TO LIFT OUT OF TN ON TUESDAY BUT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN SETS UP FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH THEM
WARMING INTO THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WE MAY EVEN
SEE SOME LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NBM IS GIVING A
30-60% CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHS 90+ NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
TERMINALS HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE
FOG HAS IMPROVED, BUT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
19Z. THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SOME GOOD
EROSION OF CLOUDS COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST AS INCREASING NNE
WINDS BRING DRIER AIR. BASED ON THOSE TRENDS AND THE LATEST
GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE ALL MIDDLE TN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO VFR
CIGS BY 21Z WITH NNE WINDS NEAR 10KT.
CONTINUED DRYING AND A SUSTAINED NNE WIND WILL PREVENT FOG
REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP VFR GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 52 74 58 78 / 0 10 40 50
CLARKSVILLE 49 72 55 76 / 0 0 10 30
CROSSVILLE 47 70 53 74 / 0 10 30 40
COLUMBIA 53 71 57 76 / 0 20 50 50
COOKEVILLE 49 72 55 76 / 0 10 30 40
JAMESTOWN 47 71 52 76 / 0 0 20 30
LAWRENCEBURG 52 71 58 75 / 0 30 50 50
MURFREESBORO 52 74 57 78 / 0 20 40 50
WAVERLY 51 71 56 76 / 0 10 30 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......REAGAN
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page