440
FXUS64 KOHX 100342
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
- A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-40.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT A
WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
IT'S QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SURFACE
WINDS. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOOKING ALOFT, A LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BEING PINCHED OFF FROM THE STRONGER NORTHEAST
TROUGH. BY SATURDAY MORNING, A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
TAKEN SHAPE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW WILL
ORGANIZE OVER SOUTHERN MS/SOUTHERN AL WITH A BROAD WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN AL/GA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH RES
SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THEY DO, QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL WOBBLE AROUND ON
SUNDAY BRINGING A COUPLE WAVES OF MOISTURE THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT I DO NOT EXPECT THE AFTERNOON TO
BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE
MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING HIGH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL START
MAKING NORTHEASTERN PROGRESS ALBEIT SLOW. BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AND REPLACED WITH PRETTY STRONG UPPER
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90
DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH A BREAK FROM THE RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
TAFS ARE VFR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, SO
THAT WILL KEEP A NNE SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE MID STATE, AND WITH WINDS
STAYING UP SEVERAL KNOTS OVERNIGHT, WE AREN'T LIKELY TO SEE THE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 52 74 58 / 0 0 10 40
CLARKSVILLE 73 49 72 55 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 70 47 70 53 / 0 0 10 30
COLUMBIA 74 53 71 57 / 0 0 20 50
COOKEVILLE 71 49 72 55 / 0 0 10 30
JAMESTOWN 69 47 71 52 / 0 0 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 73 52 71 58 / 0 0 30 50
MURFREESBORO 75 52 74 57 / 0 0 20 40
WAVERLY 73 51 71 56 / 0 0 10 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....ROSE
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