243
FXUS64 KOHX 101121
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
- A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-40.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT A
WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
IT'S QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SURFACE
WINDS. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOOKING ALOFT, A LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BEING PINCHED OFF FROM THE STRONGER NORTHEAST
TROUGH. BY SATURDAY MORNING, A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
TAKEN SHAPE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW WILL
ORGANIZE OVER SOUTHERN MS/SOUTHERN AL WITH A BROAD WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN AL/GA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH RES
SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THEY DO, QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL WOBBLE AROUND ON
SUNDAY BRINGING A COUPLE WAVES OF MOISTURE THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT I DO NOT EXPECT THE AFTERNOON TO
BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE
MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING HIGH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL START
MAKING NORTHEASTERN PROGRESS ALBEIT SLOW. BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AND REPLACED WITH PRETTY STRONG UPPER
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90
DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH A BREAK FROM THE RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NE NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR
15 KTS. LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 00Z AND
SHOULD LIKELY ONLY IMPACT CSV AND SRB. VCSH IS IN THE BNA AND MQY
TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 58 78 64 / 10 40 60 80
CLARKSVILLE 71 55 77 64 / 0 20 40 80
CROSSVILLE 70 53 75 59 / 20 40 60 80
COLUMBIA 72 58 77 62 / 30 50 60 80
COOKEVILLE 71 56 77 61 / 10 30 60 80
JAMESTOWN 71 53 77 59 / 0 30 50 70
LAWRENCEBURG 71 58 76 61 / 40 50 50 80
MURFREESBORO 73 58 79 62 / 20 40 60 80
WAVERLY 71 56 76 61 / 10 40 50 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page