669
FXUS64 KOHX 281546
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1046 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM IN THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING BUT
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH MODELS CONTINUING THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING AFTER DARK. THERE IS AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITTING AROUND TONIGHT, SO I EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
AND AREA OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY WILL START
OFF DRY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS UP AND STARTS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM THURSDAY EVENING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER WITH A TONGUE OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AHEAD OF
THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH 20-25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS
STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE SHOWERS COULD
SWING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND IMPACT THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT 6-9 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
UP ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A LOW CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY
AS WE ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST. THERE IS A DISTURBANCE THAT SWINGS AROUND THE TROUGH
PROVIDING SOME LIFT.
THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIXING THE RAIN
CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WITH SOME HIGHS
APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AREA SO THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
SHOWER COULD IMPACT A TERMINAL BUT THERE WILL BE NO IMPACT TO
VISIBILITIES. MODELS INDICATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
AFTER 06Z WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL VARY FROM
WSW TO WNW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING TO AROUND 5-8 KTS BY
17Z AND DECREASING BELOW 5 KTS AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 81 64 82 63 / 30 10 20 70
CLARKSVILLE 79 61 82 61 / 10 0 20 70
CROSSVILLE 76 59 77 58 / 70 10 30 70
COLUMBIA 80 62 82 62 / 20 0 40 70
COOKEVILLE 76 61 79 60 / 50 10 20 70
JAMESTOWN 76 59 79 57 / 60 10 20 70
LAWRENCEBURG 79 62 80 62 / 20 0 40 70
MURFREESBORO 81 62 82 62 / 30 10 30 70
WAVERLY 78 60 81 59 / 20 0 50 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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