101
FXUS64 KOHX 281752
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM IN THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING BUT
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH MODELS CONTINUING THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING AFTER DARK. THERE IS AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITTING AROUND TONIGHT, SO I EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
AND AREA OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY WILL START
OFF DRY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS UP AND STARTS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM THURSDAY EVENING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER WITH A TONGUE OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AHEAD OF
THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH 20-25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS
STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE SHOWERS COULD
SWING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND IMPACT THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT 6-9 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
UP ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A LOW CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY
AS WE ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST. THERE IS A DISTURBANCE THAT SWINGS AROUND THE TROUGH
PROVIDING SOME LIFT.
THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIXING THE RAIN
CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WITH SOME HIGHS
APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THERE ARE SOME RADAR ECHOES NOW SHOWING UP EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WHERE THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON'S
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED. MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
DISSIPATED, SO WE'RE VFR OR CLOSE TO IT AT ALL TERMINALS AT THE
MOMENT. I HAVE ADDED SOME AFTERNOON -SHRA AT KCSV AND KSRB, BUT
WILL BE MONITORING IN CASE ANY TS DEVELOPS OUT THAT WAY.
OVERNIGHT, WE EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP, SO
I'VE TAKEN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WAY DOWN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 82 64 75 / 10 30 90 60
CLARKSVILLE 61 82 62 75 / 0 30 90 30
CROSSVILLE 60 77 59 68 / 10 30 80 90
COLUMBIA 62 81 63 74 / 0 30 80 50
COOKEVILLE 62 78 61 69 / 10 20 80 80
JAMESTOWN 59 78 58 68 / 10 20 80 90
LAWRENCEBURG 62 79 63 74 / 0 30 80 50
MURFREESBORO 63 82 63 75 / 10 20 80 60
WAVERLY 61 81 60 74 / 0 40 90 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....ROSE
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