546
FXUS64 KOHX 291132
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM IN THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING BUT
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A CLOSED OFF LOW IS SITTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF TX. THIS WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER WE STILL SHOULD SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY OUTSIDE OF NASHVILLE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS STRONGER. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO TN
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES AFTER
DAYBREAK AND THEN WE WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IT WILL WORK EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A BROKEN LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AFTER 8 PM.
WE WILL SEE MODEST CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW 1000 J/KG BUT CAPE WEST OF I-65 WILL INCREASE TO 800-1300
J/KG IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY PICK UP IN THE EVENING AND WILL APPROACH 25-35 KNOTS.
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE POOR SIDE AND THAT WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR ON SEVERE WEATHER, ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THE
FORCING WILL BE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS MAINLY WITH THE ANY OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WEST OF I-65. STORM AND CAPE WILL FALL
OFF AS THEY PUSH EAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING
THE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THAT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER EASTERN
AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY BUT WILL
BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DRY
WEATHER SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A RIDGE WILL BE AMPLIFYING TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL
BE MAINLY DRY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S. A
SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN AROUND THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND TRACK OVER MIDDLE
TN. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD EAST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S. A FEW 90S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
DIFFICULT FORECAST TO PIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. IN GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TN TODAY. THIS
MORNING, MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER 00Z, MORE STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z.
INCLUDED MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE AS NEW MODEL DATA
COMES IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 82 64 75 60 / 40 80 60 0
CLARKSVILLE 82 62 74 59 / 20 80 20 0
CROSSVILLE 75 58 68 53 / 60 70 100 10
COLUMBIA 81 63 74 57 / 50 70 50 0
COOKEVILLE 76 60 69 54 / 50 70 100 10
JAMESTOWN 76 58 69 53 / 50 70 100 10
LAWRENCEBURG 79 63 73 56 / 50 70 70 0
MURFREESBORO 81 63 75 57 / 50 70 70 0
WAVERLY 81 60 73 57 / 30 80 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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