668
FXUS64 KOHX 291546
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1046 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM IN THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING BUT
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS TRANSITIONED TO AN OPEN
WAVE AND IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD. AHEAD OF THAT AND CLOSER TO HOME,
THERE HAS BEEN A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHICH HAS TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS
MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. NOT MUCH HAS
CHANGED REGARDING THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER OF A
STRONG STORM FROM 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE THE FURTHER ALONG WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL CLOSE THE WINDOW FOR STRONG
STORMS AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THAT WILL NOT BE THE END OF THE
SHOWER CHANCES AS A LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SPARK MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY THANKS TO THE FROPA. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MID
50S BY THE EVENING COMPARED TO THE MID 60S WE ARE DEALING WITH
TODAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
WE'LL HAVE A FRESH START TO THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE LARGE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA WILL FINALLY BE DRY ON SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NORTHERN PLATEAU WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
BY MONDAY THE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE US A COUPLE
WARM, DRY DAYS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER FLOW STARTING TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
DIFFICULT FORECAST TO PIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. IN GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TN TODAY. THIS
MORNING, MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER 00Z, MORE STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z.
INCLUDED MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE AS NEW MODEL DATA
COMES IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 82 64 76 60 / 40 70 70 0
CLARKSVILLE 81 62 76 59 / 20 80 50 0
CROSSVILLE 74 59 68 53 / 70 60 90 10
COLUMBIA 81 64 75 57 / 60 70 70 0
COOKEVILLE 76 60 69 54 / 60 70 90 10
JAMESTOWN 76 57 68 53 / 60 70 90 10
LAWRENCEBURG 78 63 74 56 / 60 70 70 0
MURFREESBORO 81 63 75 57 / 50 70 80 0
WAVERLY 81 61 73 57 / 20 70 40 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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