927
FXUS64 KOHX 300341
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1041 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1037 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE IS LOW, BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FLOAT AROUND MIDDLE TN AT FORECAST TIME.
AT THIS POINT, THEY'RE VERY BENIGN -- SOME LIGHTNING AND I WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISED TO HEAR ABOUT SOME TINY HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
CORES. AS I SAID IN THE EVENING UPDATE, THIS WON'T BE THE LIMIT OF
OUR ACTIVITY TONIGHT. A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A
VORT MAX THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SPARK UP ADDITIONAL
STORMS. THE 00Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWS ABOUT 1700 J/KG AND THIS WOULD
LINE UP WELL WITH THE RAP ON SPC'S MESOANALYSIS PAGE. IF THIS IS
ANALYSIS IS MAINTAINED, WHILE CAPE VALUES WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT, WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AROUND 1000 J/KG LINGERING ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. WITH 35-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR, I CAN'T FULLY
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SCATTERED STORMS
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-STATE. BOTTOM LINE, THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES
TO BE LOW, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AFTER SUNRISE, COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN, BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING OUR EASTERN HALF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH SUNSET. SOME SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AND A LITTLE CAPE
WILL BE AROUND, BUT AGAIN, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SATURDAY LOOKS ALMOST QUIET. HOWEVER, WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST
OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, I CAN'T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM
FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. SIMILARLY, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE COULD BE STRETCHED
FURTHER WEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. AT THIS POINT, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW POOR LAPSE RATES, SO WHILE SOME STORMS MAY BE
AROUND, NO SEVERE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK ROLLS AROUND, WE FINALLY START TO
LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS GOOD NEWS IN THE
RAIN DEPARTMENT, BUT WITH A RIDGE EXPECTED TO START BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO CLIMB. I DON'T SEE ANY
90S JUST YET, BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON MID-WEEK AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER DUE IN HERE IN THE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. THIS COULD BE THE START OF ANOTHER WET STRETCH FOR
MIDDLE TN AS RAIN CHANCES COULD STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS NUMEROUS CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE ORGANIZED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPOS
IN AT EACH TERMINAL FOR BEST TIMING OF IMPACT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, SO EXPECT LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LOOKS TO HAPPEN AFTER 18Z AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT THE NORTHWEST AT
THIS TIME WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 75 60 83 / 80 50 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 62 75 59 82 / 90 30 0 0
CROSSVILLE 58 67 53 74 / 60 80 10 20
COLUMBIA 63 75 57 82 / 70 40 0 0
COOKEVILLE 60 69 54 77 / 70 80 10 10
JAMESTOWN 57 68 53 75 / 70 90 10 20
LAWRENCEBURG 63 74 57 80 / 70 40 0 0
MURFREESBORO 63 75 57 82 / 70 50 0 0
WAVERLY 60 74 57 82 / 80 20 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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