859
FXUS64 KOHX 301622
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1122 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
- PLEASANT WX FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA-WIDE SUNDAY.
- MUCH WARMER NEXT WEEK. DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DAILY RAIN
CHANCES RETURN.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WAS FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST
BREEZES UP TO 25 MPH AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS (20 TO 40 PERCENT) WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG
STORMS. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, CONDITIONS WILL BE REALLY
NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT, WINDS WILL
DIMINISH, AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THROUGH THE 60S (SOME 50S
PLATEAU) THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, NO MAJOR SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL BE IN PLAY
WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING. BUT, LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING SOME
SHOWER CHANCES. THOSE CHANCES WILL BE LOW ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY
FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. GREATER CHANCES (20 TO 50 PERCENT)
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AREA-WIDE AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE
AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, WEEKEND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
MOVING AHEAD TO THE NEW WORKWEEK, THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP JUST TO OUR EAST ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP. THESE FEATURES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR BNA TO REACH THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE SPRING.
LATE WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE ALONG THE GULF COAST. A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SET UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
IN THIS BAND OF MOISTURE WITH EPISODES OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND HOW ACTIVE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE. SO,
FUTURE FORECASTS COULD BUMP UP OR DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES, AND HIGH
TEMPS MAY RISE/FALL A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE RAIN COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, LOW CIGS ARE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z. OTHERWISE, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL WITH GUSTS NEAR
20 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 60 84 63 / 40 0 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 75 59 83 61 / 30 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 68 53 74 56 / 80 0 20 20
COLUMBIA 74 57 81 61 / 30 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 69 53 76 58 / 80 0 20 20
JAMESTOWN 68 53 76 54 / 90 0 40 20
LAWRENCEBURG 74 56 81 61 / 30 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 74 56 83 61 / 40 0 10 10
WAVERLY 74 56 81 61 / 10 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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