176
FXUS64 KOHX 302340
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
640 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
- PLEASANT WX FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA-WIDE SUNDAY.
- MUCH WARMER NEXT WEEK. DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DAILY RAIN
CHANCES RETURN.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WAS FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST
BREEZES UP TO 25 MPH AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. A
FEW SHOWERS (20 TO 40 PERCENT) WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG
STORMS. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, CONDITIONS WILL BE REALLY
NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT, WINDS WILL
DIMINISH, AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THROUGH THE 60S (SOME 50S
PLATEAU) THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, NO MAJOR SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL BE IN PLAY
WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING. BUT, LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING SOME
SHOWER CHANCES. THOSE CHANCES WILL BE LOW ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY
FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. GREATER CHANCES (20 TO 50 PERCENT)
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AREA-WIDE AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE
AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, WEEKEND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
MOVING AHEAD TO THE NEW WORKWEEK, THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP JUST TO OUR EAST ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP. THESE FEATURES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR BNA TO REACH THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE SPRING.
LATE WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE ALONG THE GULF COAST. A
BAND OF MOISTURE WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SET UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
IN THIS BAND OF MOISTURE WITH EPISODES OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND HOW ACTIVE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE. SO,
FUTURE FORECASTS COULD BUMP UP OR DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES, AND HIGH
TEMPS MAY RISE/FALL A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE RAIN COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS MIDDLE TN
AIRPORTS, THOUGH WE'RE WATCHING A DECAYING STORM HEADED TOWARD
SRB WHICH MAY AT LEAST SOAK THE RUNWAY.
NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
SHOULD FAVOR A W DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AT 4-8 KTS. WINDS RETURN TO A
NW DIRECTION TOMORROW AT 10-12 KTS WITH A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 60 84 63 82 / 10 10 10 40
CLARKSVILLE 59 83 61 81 / 0 0 10 30
CROSSVILLE 53 74 56 74 / 20 20 20 50
COLUMBIA 57 81 61 82 / 0 0 10 50
COOKEVILLE 53 76 58 76 / 20 20 20 40
JAMESTOWN 53 76 54 74 / 10 40 20 40
LAWRENCEBURG 56 81 61 81 / 0 0 10 50
MURFREESBORO 56 83 61 82 / 20 10 10 50
WAVERLY 56 81 61 82 / 0 0 10 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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