091
FXUS64 KOHX 310352
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
- PLEASANT WX FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS AREA-WIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MUCH WARMER NEXT WEEK. DRY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DAILY
RAIN CHANCES RETURN.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
THE SCOPE IS CLEAR AND SO ARE SKIES ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THAT SAID,
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND RECENT RAINS, FOG IS STARTING TO
SHOW UP ON SATELLITE. AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE FALLEN TO EITHER
ZERO OR ONE DEGREE AT MANY SITES EAST OF I-65, FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE IN THIS PART OF THE MID-STATE, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHO SAW
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. USE CAUTION TONIGHT ON AREA ROADS AS
VISIBILITIES COULD DROP SUDDENLY.
WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN MAY, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT WE HAVEN'T HIT
90 DEGREES YET AT BNA. IN FACT, WE'RE RUNNING 3 DEGREES UNDER NORMAL
MAY AVERAGES. HOWEVER, ME THINKS THIS IS GOING TO CHANGE SOON.
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE MID-STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS HAS US IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COMBINED WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AT SEASONAL AVERAGES. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES,
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY FOR EVERYONE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS,
BUT AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY, WE
SHOULD SEE A PRETTY DECENT CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS. AFTER TAKING A LOOK AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WITH ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SUNDAY'S RAIN CHANCES MIGHT BE IT FOR A FEW DAYS. BY MONDAY, WE
START TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PULLS AWAY AND
IN ITS PLACE, UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. THIS SHOULD KEEP US
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, I THINK
OUR RUN OF SUB-90 DEGREE DAYS WILL COME TO AN END FOR 2025 BY
WEDNESDAY AS THAT UPPER RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO EXERT ITSELF ON THE
REGION. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE WARM, WITH SEVERAL SPOTS EXPECTED TO
TOP 90. DON'T WORRY, YOU LUCKY PLATEAU DWELLERS. YOU'LL REMAIN IN
THE LOW 80S.
ONCE THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME
FRAME, WE COULD GET INTO WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD AS
MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PLAGUE US NEXT WEEKEND.
IT'S TOO EARLY TO LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT FAR OUT AND LABEL
THEM WITH ANY GREAT CONFIDENCE, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS TO BE ON THE WETTER SIDE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS MIDDLE TN
AIRPORTS, THOUGH WE'RE WATCHING A DECAYING STORM HEADED TOWARD
SRB WHICH MAY AT LEAST SOAK THE RUNWAY.
NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
SHOULD FAVOR A W DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AT 4-8 KTS. WINDS RETURN TO A
NW DIRECTION TOMORROW AT 10-12 KTS WITH A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 60 84 64 83 / 10 0 0 60
CLARKSVILLE 59 83 62 82 / 0 0 0 40
CROSSVILLE 52 75 56 75 / 20 10 10 80
COLUMBIA 57 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 60
COOKEVILLE 53 78 58 77 / 20 10 10 70
JAMESTOWN 53 76 55 75 / 10 30 20 60
LAWRENCEBURG 56 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 60
MURFREESBORO 56 83 61 84 / 20 0 0 80
WAVERLY 56 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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