328
FXUS64 KOHX 312309
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
609 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 603 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
- PLEASANT WX FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS AREA-WIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- HAZY SKIES THIS WEEKEND AS SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
SPREADS OVERHEAD.
- MUCH WARMER NEXT WEEK. DRY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DAILY
RAIN CHANCES RETURN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
WE ARE ENJOYING A CLEAR RADAR SCOPE THIS EVENING, WITH A GUSTY
N/NW BREEZE RESULTING IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FREE OF ANY ACTIVE WEATHER, ALONG WITH THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE 18Z HRRR SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN 20Z-21Z RIGHT ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE. OBVIOUSLY,
ANY VARIATION IN THE BOUNDARY'S LOCATION WILL ALTER THE PLACEMENT
OF EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN TOMORROW EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
QUIET WX WAS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS BRINGING SMOKE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILDFIRES DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SMOKE WAS THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD BACK OUR TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FROM EXPECTED LEVELS TODAY. THE SMOKE WILL KEEP OUR SKIES
HAZY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH RED SUNRISES AND
SUNSETS.
THE NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY WHICH WILL SET OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED FROM
THE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN-FREE AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT BNA AND SOME OTHER AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE FIRST 90+ DEGREE
DAY OF THIS SPRING SEASON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. ON A SIDE NOTE,
THE CANADIAN SMOKE MAY GET PUSHED OUT, BUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES,
SKIES COULD BECOME HAZY AGAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME IMPACTS
FROM A SAHARAN DUST PLUME CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
LATE WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS AND DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE
PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WX MAKER AT THIS POINT. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE A PRODUCER OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
COVERAGE PEAKING IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE A PATTERN THAT WILL REQUIRE CAREFUL MONITORING
FOR OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORM/LIGHTNING DELAYS
POSSIBLE SANDWICHED BETWEEN HOT, STICKY, RAIN-FREE PERIODS.
VISITORS TO THE MID STATE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HEAT, HUMIDITY, SUN,
AND PERIODIC HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF KANSAS AND MOVE WEST AND SOUTH OF TN...HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW DUE TO
THIS. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB 30 FOR ALL SITES AFTER 01/20Z EXCEPT
FOR CKV. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON THIS HAPPENING.
OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP AFTER 01/18Z WITH WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 84 62 85 / 0 50 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 61 83 60 85 / 0 40 20 0
CROSSVILLE 55 76 52 78 / 0 60 20 0
COLUMBIA 61 84 60 85 / 0 40 10 0
COOKEVILLE 56 78 55 80 / 0 50 30 0
JAMESTOWN 54 76 50 80 / 10 50 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 61 82 60 84 / 0 40 0 0
MURFREESBORO 61 84 60 85 / 0 50 10 0
WAVERLY 60 83 60 85 / 0 40 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....12
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