101
FXUS64 KOHX 010250
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
950 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 936 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- EXPECT HAZY SKIES THIS WEEKEND AS SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
- LOOK FOR MUCH WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN AFTER WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE HAS SLIPPED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING,
WITH SURFACE WINDS HAVING TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THOUGH THE MID STATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. AS A RESULT, THE
00Z HRRR DEPICTS A BROKEN LINE OF CELLS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 20Z-21Z
IN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE AND PERSISTING UNTIL
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. SO SOME LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING PEAK-HEATING
HOURS TOMORROW, BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO START TO CREEP UPWARD NEXT WEEK, WITH 90 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MID STATE LATE NEXT WEEK, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL THEN STAY AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 8.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF KANSAS AND MOVE WEST AND SOUTH OF TN...HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW DUE TO
THIS. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB 30 FOR ALL SITES AFTER 01/20Z EXCEPT
FOR CKV. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON THIS HAPPENING.
OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP AFTER 01/18Z WITH WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 84 62 85 / 0 50 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 61 83 60 85 / 0 40 20 0
CROSSVILLE 55 76 52 78 / 0 60 20 0
COLUMBIA 61 84 60 85 / 0 40 10 0
COOKEVILLE 56 78 55 80 / 0 50 30 0
JAMESTOWN 54 76 50 80 / 10 50 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 61 82 60 84 / 0 40 0 0
MURFREESBORO 61 84 60 85 / 0 50 10 0
WAVERLY 60 83 60 85 / 0 40 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....12
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