439
FXUS64 KOHX 012324
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
MAINLY NORTHEAST HALF. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
- FEELING LIKE SUMMER THIS WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP.
- DRY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK THIS EVENING. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENTERED MIDDLE TN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WHILE ONE CELL MAY HAVE PUT DOWN SOME PEA SIZED HAIL,
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS ARE GENERAL IN NATURE. I'D SAY
THERE'S STILL A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHTNING THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM FOR
THOSE EAST OF I-65, BUT THIS WILL WANE AS THE SUNSETS AND WE LOSE
THE DAYTIME HEATING.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHO SEE
SOME RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
LATE THIS SUNDAY MORNING, SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SKIES WERE A LITTLE BLUER
AND LESS HAZY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME DISSIPATION OF THE SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES.
A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LURKING OVER SOUTHERN KY,
EVIDENT BY LOWER TEMPS AND MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS TO OUR NORTH.
THIS FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD AND "ACTIVATE" THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUBBLING UP, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
OUR COVERAGE AREA. A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR 2 WITH
GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE GENERALLY LOW-CVOERAGE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. SOME
POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT FOG WILL FORM, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
WITH A NOTABLY STRONG RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES
AND MOST CLOUDS WHILE BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS WILL REACH THE FIRST 90+ DEGREE DAYS OF THIS SEASON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE TOLERABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL FORM NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY MIDWEEK
THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE TOWARD OUR AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FLATTENS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
BRINGING EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE HEAT AND INCREASING HUMIDITY OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. IN THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN, A STORM OR 2 COULD BE
BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS ANY GIVEN DAY, BUT AT THIS
TIME WE ARE NOT SEEING INDICATIONS OF AN ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WX THREAT. THOSE ATTENDING OUTDOOR EVENTS WILL NEED TO BE
PREPARED FOR HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND SUN INTERRUPTED AT TIMES BY
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW CELLS ONGOING JUST NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY BUT THESE ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. THEREFORE, TAFS ARE VFR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCSV,
WHERE EARLY MORNING RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 86 66 90 / 20 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 61 85 65 90 / 20 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 55 80 57 82 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 61 85 64 88 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 57 80 60 85 / 30 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 53 80 56 84 / 30 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 61 85 63 87 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 61 86 63 90 / 20 0 0 0
WAVERLY 61 85 64 88 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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