518
FXUS64 KOHX 020355
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1055 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
- FEELING LIKE SUMMER THIS WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP.
- DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, ALMOST ALL OF THE EVENING
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END. TONIGHT'S WEATHER SHOULD BE VERY
QUIET THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS FALL NEAR ZERO AND WINDS GO CALM. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RAIN THIS EVENING. USE
CAUTION ON MID-STATE ROADWAYS TONIGHT AS VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
SUDDENLY.
WE'RE FINALLY IN FOR A COUPLE OF QUIET WEATHER DAYS ACROSS MIDDLE
TN. AS THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING'S SHOWERS AND
STORMS PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW, UPPER RIDGING WILL
START TO TAKE OVER THE REGION. AS IT DOES, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE'LL FINALLY REACH 90
AT BNA AND MAYBE A FEW OTHER SPOTS TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE TWO DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS OF THIS OCCURING ARE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (~90%) AND THURSDAY DROPS OFF TO ABOUT 75%.
IN ANY EVENT, IT'S GOING TO BE WARM. THE POSITION OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO DROP POPS THIS WEEK. WHILE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SUGGEST RAINS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY, THE AXIS OF
THE RIDGE COULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND OPEN THE
DOOR FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WEST OF I-65, WITH A SIMILAR SITUATION
ON THURSDAY. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THESE WILL BE YOUR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CARRY A WIND AND HEAVY RAIN
RISK WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER CORES, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDING ARE
CURRENTLY EXHIBITING POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW SHEAR
VALUES SO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW ATTM.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTING FRIDAY IS A LITTLE
MURKY, HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REGULATE BACK INTO
THE 80S DUE TO RAIN CHANCES AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER, MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
DO EXIST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW CELLS ONGOING JUST NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY BUT THESE ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. THEREFORE, TAFS ARE VFR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCSV,
WHERE EARLY MORNING RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 87 66 90 / 20 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 62 86 66 90 / 20 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 55 80 58 83 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 62 86 64 88 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 58 81 61 85 / 30 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 53 81 57 85 / 30 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 61 85 63 87 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 61 87 63 90 / 20 0 0 0
WAVERLY 62 86 65 88 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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