983
FXUS64 KOHX 072350
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
650 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT MEDIUM TO HIGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS WEEK.
- HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, WITH THE HEAT EASING UP STARTING ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SIMMERED DOWN ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THERE'S A SLOW-MOVING BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT JUST
ENTERED INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA OVER THE LAST HOUR THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS IT
MOVES EAST. LATEST CAMS BRING ACTIVITY TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TONIGHT WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG THAN WE'VE SEEN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE EARLIER TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CREEPING INTO THE LOW
100S WEST OF THE PLATEAU. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5" ACROSS THE
MID-STATE. ANY OF THESE STORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50MPH. REMAIN WEATHER AWARE
AND MONITOR THE RADAR IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS TODAY. STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 9-11PM. PATCHY FOG BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, WE ENTER INTO AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BEST TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT CAN LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO RELAX TO SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
STORMS WILL IMPACT CKV OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OTHERWISE,
THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH 15Z. DIURNAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 16-18Z ON TUESDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AFTER 18Z. PROB30S WERE INCLUDED AT CKV/BNA/MQY WHERE
CHANCES ARE HIGHER OF BEING IMPACTED BY A STORM. CHANCES ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER AT CSV/SRB SO NO MENTION OF STORMS WAS INCLUDED AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO 3 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
4-8 KTS OUT OF THE SW/WSW AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 93 74 91 / 30 60 30 80
CLARKSVILLE 73 89 72 88 / 30 50 30 70
CROSSVILLE 66 88 67 86 / 20 60 40 80
COLUMBIA 71 92 71 90 / 20 60 30 80
COOKEVILLE 69 89 69 87 / 20 50 40 70
JAMESTOWN 67 87 67 86 / 10 60 40 70
LAWRENCEBURG 70 91 70 89 / 20 60 30 80
MURFREESBORO 71 93 72 91 / 30 60 30 80
WAVERLY 71 89 70 88 / 30 60 30 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......BAGGETT
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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