007
FXUS64 KOHX 080346
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1046 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS WEEK REMAINS LOW.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS WEEK.
- HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, WITH THE HEAT EASING UP STARTING ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN ON RADAR TONIGHT AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BEYOND THESE
SHOWERS, TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND WARM WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG THAN WE'VE SEEN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE EARLIER TODAY.
TUESDAY'S FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY, WITH
PERHAPS A GREATER WIND THREAT WITH A LITTLE BETTER DYNAMIC
SUPPORT IN PLACE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PULL INTO THE AREA, AND
OUR PWAT VALUES HAVE NEARLY ECLIPSED 2" WITH 1.97" MEASURED ON THE
00Z OHX SOUNDING THIS EVENING. STORMS TODAY (AND SUNDAY) DUMPED
NEARLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR. WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TOMORROW COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A BIG CONCERN AS HEALTHY RAINFALL
RATES WILL OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST STORMS - ALL FALLING ON TOP OF
WHAT'S ALREADY FALLEN. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, IT'S HARD TO SAY
WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL FIRE SINCE INITIATION HAS BEEN AIDED BY
OUTFLOWS. REGARDLESS, KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE IN AN AREA THAT HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOODING
THREAT, STORMS WILL CARRY A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH DCAPE VALUES
OVER 1000 J/KG AND SBCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
BE A TOUCH HIGHER, NEAR 20 KTS, THOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
GREAT SEVERE THREAT. STILL, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WHEN CAPES WILL BE THE
HIGHEST. OTHERWISE, WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AS STORMS COLLAPSE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A MORE POSITIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY,
FINALLY SHIFTING EAST. RAIN/STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER ON
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. THE
BRIGHT SIDE IS....THIS WILL BRING US SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL, AROUND 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
OUR WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
STORM CHANCES, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STORMS THIS WEEKEND LOOK MORE LIKE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORMS,
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR AND HIGH CAPE, SO THE MAJORITY OF WHAT
WE SEE WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. OUR BREAK FROM THE HEAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL BE HEATING BACK UP AS WE
MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. A VERY EARLY LOOK AT A FEW DETERMINISTIC
UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK. TIME WILL TELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
STORMS WILL IMPACT CKV OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OTHERWISE,
THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH 15Z. DIURNAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 16-18Z ON TUESDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AFTER 18Z. PROB30S WERE INCLUDED AT CKV/BNA/MQY WHERE
CHANCES ARE HIGHER OF BEING IMPACTED BY A STORM. CHANCES ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER AT CSV/SRB SO NO MENTION OF STORMS WAS INCLUDED AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO 3 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
4-8 KTS OUT OF THE SW/WSW AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 92 73 90 / 30 60 30 70
CLARKSVILLE 72 89 72 87 / 40 60 20 70
CROSSVILLE 66 88 67 86 / 20 60 30 80
COLUMBIA 71 92 71 89 / 20 60 30 80
COOKEVILLE 69 88 69 85 / 20 60 30 70
JAMESTOWN 67 87 68 85 / 20 60 20 70
LAWRENCEBURG 70 92 70 89 / 20 60 30 80
MURFREESBORO 71 93 71 90 / 30 60 30 70
WAVERLY 71 90 71 87 / 40 60 30 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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