249
FXUS64 KOHX 081127
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS WEEK REMAINS LOW.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS WEEK.
- HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, WITH THE HEAT EASING UP STARTING ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN ON RADAR TONIGHT AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BEYOND THESE
SHOWERS, TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND WARM WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG THAN WE'VE SEEN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE EARLIER TODAY.
TUESDAY'S FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY, WITH
PERHAPS A GREATER WIND THREAT WITH A LITTLE BETTER DYNAMIC
SUPPORT IN PLACE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PULL INTO THE AREA, AND
OUR PWAT VALUES HAVE NEARLY ECLIPSED 2" WITH 1.97" MEASURED ON THE
00Z OHX SOUNDING THIS EVENING. STORMS TODAY (AND SUNDAY) DUMPED
NEARLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR. WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TOMORROW COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A BIG CONCERN AS HEALTHY RAINFALL
RATES WILL OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST STORMS - ALL FALLING ON TOP OF
WHAT'S ALREADY FALLEN. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, IT'S HARD TO SAY
WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL FIRE SINCE INITIATION HAS BEEN AIDED BY
OUTFLOWS. REGARDLESS, KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE IN AN AREA THAT HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOODING
THREAT, STORMS WILL CARRY A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH DCAPE VALUES
OVER 1000 J/KG AND SBCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
BE A TOUCH HIGHER, NEAR 20 KTS, THOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
GREAT SEVERE THREAT. STILL, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WHEN CAPES WILL BE THE
HIGHEST. OTHERWISE, WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AS STORMS COLLAPSE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A MORE POSITIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY,
FINALLY SHIFTING EAST. RAIN/STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER ON
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. THE
BRIGHT SIDE IS....THIS WILL BRING US SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL, AROUND 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
OUR WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
STORM CHANCES, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STORMS THIS WEEKEND LOOK MORE LIKE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORMS,
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR AND HIGH CAPE, SO THE MAJORITY OF WHAT
WE SEE WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. OUR BREAK FROM THE HEAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL BE HEATING BACK UP AS WE
MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. A VERY EARLY LOOK AT A FEW DETERMINISTIC
UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK. TIME WILL TELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BE GONE BY 13Z. ONCE
AGAIN, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. LIGHT SW TO NW
WINDS TODAY. OVERALL, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. THAT SAID, GREATEST CHANCES EXIST OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA, INCLUDING CKV/BNA/MQY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 92 73 90 73 / 60 30 70 30
CLARKSVILLE 89 72 87 73 / 60 20 70 20
CROSSVILLE 88 67 86 67 / 60 30 80 40
COLUMBIA 92 71 89 71 / 60 30 80 40
COOKEVILLE 88 69 85 69 / 60 30 70 40
JAMESTOWN 87 68 85 68 / 60 20 70 40
LAWRENCEBURG 92 70 89 71 / 60 30 80 40
MURFREESBORO 93 71 90 71 / 60 30 70 40
WAVERLY 90 71 87 71 / 60 30 70 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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