389
FXUS64 KOHX 090033
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
733 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS WEEK REMAINS LOW.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THIS WEEK.
- HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, WITH THE HEAT EASING UP STARTING ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA.
MODELS HAVE THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE
NEXT THREE HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING. CAMS LOOK PRETTY
SIMILAR TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY. ACTIVITY MAY WAIT UNTIL AROUND
17 OR 18Z BEFORE FIRING BUT THEN THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE FOLLOWING THREE OR FOUR HOURS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WATER-LOADED AGAIN WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.8-2" THIS WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF HIGH RAIN RATES WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION, THE EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOMORROW (AROUND 20 KTS) WHICH MAY
ALLOW A COUPLE OF UPDRAFTS TO GET TALLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WOULD MEAN THE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. STILL, WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
AT FORECAST TIME, SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WE HAVE STARTED TO
WARMUP -- THOUGH NOT QUITE AS QUICK AS YESTERDAY. THIS HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER CU DEVELOPMENT, BUT DON'T YOU WORRY; IT'S STARTING TO
POP. AS WE'VE REACHED THOSE CONVECTIVE TS (86 DEG) THIS MORNING,
WE'VE STARTED TO SEE A CU FIELD DEVELOP WHICH MEANS THE PUMP IS
PRIMED FOR THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WE EXPECT TO
SEE THIS AFTERNOON. WE'RE ALREADY SEEING SOME ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST
THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE INITIAL INSTIGATOR FOR TODAY'S STORMS.
WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ANY OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY GET THINGS
FIRED UP FOR US. A FEW CAMS LIMIT THE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT, BUT
THEY DID YESTERDAY, TOO, AND THAT DIDN'T QUITE WORK OUT FOR THEM
AS MANY SAW AT LEAST SOME RAIN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. CAMS DO SHOW
THAT DCAPES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 1000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-65. THIS MIGHT SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THE WIND THREAT, BUT WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND ONLY DOUBLE DIGIT HELICITIES, UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO
BE MAINTAINED. FOR THIS REASON, THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE LOW, BUT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BOTH LAST NIGHT'S 00Z AND THIS MORNING'S 12Z OHX
SOUNDINGS HAVE DISPLAYED PW VALUES OF 1.97". WHILE NOT RECORDS,
DEFINITELY IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH
SLOW MOVERS AND THAT MUCH BUILT-UP MOISTURE, LOOK FOR RAIN RATES
THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
WHO SAW COPIOUS RAIN YESTERDAY. AS STORMS DIE OFF THIS EVENING,
MORE PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BACK OFF TOMORROW, THE DIURNAL
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MAINTAINED, ALONG WITH SIMILAR PARAMETERS AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. IF THERE IS ANY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND
TOMORROW, IT'S THE HELPFUL HAND OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE *SLIGHTLY* BETTER SUPPORT FOR UPDRAFTS.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW TOMORROW, THERE IS SOME
INDICATION FROM THE HREF (SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY) OF A 10%
CHANCE OF 3+ INCHES OF RAIN FALLING SOMEWHERE WEST OF I-65. 00Z HREF
PROGS PUT IT ALONG I-40, WEST OF NASHVILLE METRO. THIS IS WORTH
MENTIONING AS A COMBINATION WITH MONDAY AND TODAY'S RAIN COULD CAUSE
MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING IN THIS AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
THE FORECAST DOESN'T GET MUCH DRIER AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. EVEN AS WE LOSE SOME OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE DOCKET EACH AFTERNOON. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
MUCH THIS WEEKEND, BUT YOU WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION, WHILE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME FRAME, THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THE HEAT WILL START TO CRANK BACK UP NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ON RADAR THIS EVENING,
THOUGH TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OF ANY ACTIVITY. STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN A NEARBY RADIUS OF SRB AND CSV, SO VCTS HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE TAF. ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE DOWN FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
AT CKV, SRB, AND CSV. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A FOCUS DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.
PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SW
DIRECTION, GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 5 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 89 73 90 / 20 70 30 70
CLARKSVILLE 73 87 71 89 / 20 60 20 60
CROSSVILLE 67 86 66 83 / 50 70 40 80
COLUMBIA 71 88 70 88 / 20 70 30 80
COOKEVILLE 69 86 68 86 / 20 80 30 80
JAMESTOWN 68 85 67 83 / 20 80 40 80
LAWRENCEBURG 71 88 70 87 / 20 70 40 80
MURFREESBORO 71 90 70 89 / 10 70 30 80
WAVERLY 71 86 70 88 / 40 60 20 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......REAGAN
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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