013
FXUS64 KOHX 090334
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1034 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY AND
THURSDAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS WEEK REMAINS LOW.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
A WAVE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. WEAKENING HAS BEEN OCCURING OVER THE
LAST HOUR AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT APPROACHES THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA. STILL, THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE METRO AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHER
THAN THAT ACTIVITY, THE MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME SPOTS.
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE BULK
SHEAR COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERNOON EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THESE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN BE VERY
MOIST WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8-2" WHICH WILL PRODUCE
SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, STORMS
WILL BE MOVING WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
NEVERTHELESS, THE HIGH RAIN RATES MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEFING
LOCALIZED PONDING AND FULL DITCHES.
THE ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
MORE SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY WITH GENERAL
TROUGHING STICKING AROUND. BOTH THE GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE
FOCUSING ON THE EASTERN THIRD FOR THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
AS WE GO INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
WITH MAINLY DIURNAL STORM ACTIVITY. MODELS DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER HIGH BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN WHICH MAY BEGIN TO SUPPRESS
THE DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ON RADAR THIS EVENING,
THOUGH TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OF ANY ACTIVITY. STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN A NEARBY RADIUS OF SRB AND CSV, SO VCTS HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE TAF. ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE DOWN FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
AT CKV, SRB, AND CSV. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A FOCUS DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.
PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SW
DIRECTION, GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 5 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 74 89 73 / 70 50 70 30
CLARKSVILLE 89 73 86 71 / 90 30 60 20
CROSSVILLE 88 67 85 65 / 50 30 80 40
COLUMBIA 92 71 88 70 / 70 60 70 30
COOKEVILLE 89 69 86 68 / 60 30 80 30
JAMESTOWN 87 68 85 67 / 50 20 80 40
LAWRENCEBURG 92 71 88 69 / 50 50 70 30
MURFREESBORO 94 71 90 70 / 60 50 70 30
WAVERLY 89 71 86 69 / 90 30 60 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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