189
FXUS64 KOHX 090525
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1225 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY AND
THURSDAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS WEEK REMAINS LOW.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
A WAVE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. WEAKENING HAS BEEN OCCURING OVER THE
LAST HOUR AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT APPROACHES THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA. STILL, THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE METRO AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHER
THAN THAT ACTIVITY, THE MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME SPOTS.
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE BULK
SHEAR COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERNOON EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THESE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN BE VERY
MOIST WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8-2" WHICH WILL PRODUCE
SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, STORMS
WILL BE MOVING WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
NEVERTHELESS, THE HIGH RAIN RATES MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEFING
LOCALIZED PONDING AND FULL DITCHES.
THE ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
MORE SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY WITH GENERAL
TROUGHING STICKING AROUND. BOTH THE GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE
FOCUSING ON THE EASTERN THIRD FOR THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
AS WE GO INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
WITH MAINLY DIURNAL STORM ACTIVITY. MODELS DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER HIGH BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN WHICH MAY BEGIN TO SUPPRESS
THE DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING ACROSS MIDDLE TN. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z, ESPECIALLY AT CKV, SRB, AND CSV.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A
FOCUS DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SW DIRECTION, GENERALLY
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 5 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 89 73 91 72 / 70 30 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 86 71 90 72 / 60 20 20 10
CROSSVILLE 85 65 84 66 / 80 40 60 20
COLUMBIA 88 70 89 70 / 70 30 40 10
COOKEVILLE 86 68 85 68 / 80 30 60 10
JAMESTOWN 85 67 84 66 / 80 40 50 10
LAWRENCEBURG 88 69 88 70 / 70 30 40 10
MURFREESBORO 90 70 91 70 / 70 30 40 10
WAVERLY 86 69 89 70 / 60 20 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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