963
FXUS64 KOHX 091652
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND
REMAINS LOW.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THIS WEEK.
- EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BUT
EXCESSIVE HEAT WON'T BE A FACTOR ANYTIME SOON.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TOUGH ARE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. ALREADY, THE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE MID STATE IS PLENTY UNSTABLE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ALSO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. SO THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, OUR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
SOME TOMORROW, BUT WE'LL STILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TOMORROW, MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
MAINLY DAYTIME RAIN AND STORMS ARE GOING TO BE A FIXTURE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS
STAYS WITH US. POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES COMES THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BUILD BACK UP AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EXCESSIVE HEAT
WON'T BE A FACTOR ANYTIME SOON. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF ANY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS VERY LOW. THE
WORST WE ANTICIPATE IS THE OCCASIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM AND
HEAT INDICES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW 100S BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
PATCHY FOG IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MIDDLE TN
THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR. FOG WILL
DIMINISH BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ANY DIRECT IMPACTS
TO TERMINALS MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES, GUSTY
WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN. STORM COVERAGE WILL TAPER OFF AROUND 00Z.
BUT ADDITIONAL FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PLATEAU AND IN OTHER AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 72 91 72 / 70 20 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 87 71 89 71 / 60 10 20 10
CROSSVILLE 85 66 83 65 / 70 40 70 20
COLUMBIA 88 70 88 70 / 80 30 30 10
COOKEVILLE 86 68 85 67 / 70 40 50 10
JAMESTOWN 85 67 83 66 / 80 40 60 10
LAWRENCEBURG 88 70 88 69 / 80 40 40 10
MURFREESBORO 90 70 89 70 / 80 40 40 10
WAVERLY 86 70 88 70 / 70 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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