356
FXUS64 KOHX 100102
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
802 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 745 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH ACTIVITY
FOCUSING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THIS WEEK.
- EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BUT
EXCESSIVE HEAT WON'T BE A FACTOR ANYTIME SOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS ON THE PLATEAU AT
THIS HOUR AND MOVING EAST. THERE IS SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
WEST. HIGH RES MODELS WANT TO INCREASE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. I AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THAT SOLUTION WITH THE
00Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT BUT MLCAPE VALUES
LESS THAT 500 J/KG. THIS WILL ONLY DECREASE AS THE EVENING HOURS
PROGRESS. SOME LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AS FAR AS THURSDAY, THERE IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE
SITUATED ALONG I-65 AROUND MIDDAY. THIS SHOULD FOCUS THE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE LOWER TOMORROW WITH VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7" RANGE VS
THE 1.8-2" RANGE LIKE IT HAS BEEN. REGARDLESS, THERE WILL BE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN BUT THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TOUGH ARE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. ALREADY, THE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE MID STATE IS PLENTY UNSTABLE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ALSO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. SO THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, OUR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
SOME TOMORROW, BUT WE'LL STILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TOMORROW, MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
MAINLY DAYTIME RAIN AND STORMS ARE GOING TO BE A FIXTURE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS
STAYS WITH US. POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES COMES THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BUILD BACK UP AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EXCESSIVE HEAT
WON'T BE A FACTOR ANYTIME SOON. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF ANY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS VERY LOW. THE
WORST WE ANTICIPATE IS THE OCCASIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM AND
HEAT INDICES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW 100S BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING, CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST. SRB AND
CSV WILL BE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR. MODELS
ARE COMING IN HOT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE 12Z HREF IS GIVING A 40% CHANCE OF LIFR FOG
MAINLY AT CKV, CSV, AND SRB. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE MADE IN THE NEXT
TAF ISSUANCE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. MOVING INTO THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, MODELS ARE FOCUSING TSRA DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EAST. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE SRB AND
CSV TAF. FOR OUR WESTERN TERMINALS, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA DEVELOPMENT, LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE, SO THUNDER HAS BEEN LEFT
OUT OF THE TAF.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 90 73 93 / 30 30 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 71 89 71 91 / 10 20 0 20
CROSSVILLE 66 82 65 86 / 50 60 10 40
COLUMBIA 69 88 70 91 / 30 30 0 40
COOKEVILLE 68 84 68 88 / 40 50 10 40
JAMESTOWN 67 83 65 86 / 30 60 10 40
LAWRENCEBURG 69 87 69 90 / 40 40 10 40
MURFREESBORO 70 89 70 92 / 40 40 10 40
WAVERLY 69 88 69 91 / 30 20 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......REAGAN
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page