276
FXUS64 KOHX 100346
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1046 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH ACTIVITY
FOCUSING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THIS WEEK.
- EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BUT
EXCESSIVE HEAT WON'T BE A FACTOR ANYTIME SOON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
THE RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET THIS EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
NOTED IN NE MISSISSIPPI AND NW ALABAMA. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
DRY WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE LOWER POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A TROUGH
AXIS ALONG I-65. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY RANGING FROM 1.5-1.7". SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN, BUT THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOW. A STRONG
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT IT WILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. THE STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INFLUENCES. THE DIURNAL STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER WITH NO APPARENT
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE AIR MASS WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80 TO LOWER 90S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
THE SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED EVERYDAY PEAKING IN THE MID AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO STORMS,
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES, SO IT WILL BE HOT BUT
NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING, CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST. SRB AND
CSV WILL BE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR. MODELS
ARE COMING IN HOT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE 12Z HREF IS GIVING A 40% CHANCE OF LIFR FOG
MAINLY AT CKV, CSV, AND SRB. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE MADE IN THE NEXT
TAF ISSUANCE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. MOVING INTO THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, MODELS ARE FOCUSING TSRA DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EAST. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE SRB AND
CSV TAF. FOR OUR WESTERN TERMINALS, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA DEVELOPMENT, LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE, SO THUNDER HAS BEEN LEFT
OUT OF THE TAF.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 89 72 92 / 30 40 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 71 89 71 92 / 10 20 0 20
CROSSVILLE 65 82 65 86 / 50 60 10 30
COLUMBIA 69 88 70 90 / 30 40 10 40
COOKEVILLE 68 84 67 87 / 40 50 10 30
JAMESTOWN 67 83 66 86 / 30 60 10 30
LAWRENCEBURG 69 86 70 89 / 40 40 10 50
MURFREESBORO 70 88 70 92 / 40 40 10 30
WAVERLY 69 88 70 91 / 20 20 0 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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