228
FXUS64 KOHX 101641
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1141 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW, WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING PRIMARILY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND ADJACENT AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
- WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW, LOCALIZED
FLASH-FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
- EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BUT
EXCESSIVE HEAT WON'T BE A FACTOR ANYTIME SOON.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH HAS SLIPPED TO THE EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO WE
ARE NOW UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED
OUT SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY, MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE OHX SOUNDING IS STILL A
ROBUST 1.71" (DOWN FROM 1.97" YESTERDAY MORNING), WHICH IS JUST
ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, SO THERE IS PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE LEFT OVER. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE DOWN
SOMEWHAT, BUT THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ADJACENT AREAS, AND THE
SAME SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO HOLD UP TOMORROW. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY
WEAK -- 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ~400 MB, SO THERE
IS AN INCREASED RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH-FLOODING WITH ANY STORMS
DUE TO EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY/UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO
APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTHWEST, SO THAT WILL HELP TO
FOCUS MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN OUR STILL-UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WE EXPECT OUR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
STARTING ON SATURDAY, AND MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY, WE AREN'T
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 8. TEMPERATURES
APPEAR TO STAY JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MAYBE NEXT
THURSDAY, WITH THE 13Z NBM SHOWING TEMPERATURES STARTING TO BACK
OFF LATE NEXT WEEK. (THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK DOES FAVOR NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.) HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
AT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS. SO THAT MEANS SOME DISCOMFORT, BUT
CERTAINLY NOTHING HAZARDOUS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING,
RESULTING IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH MID-MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DIRECT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORM COVERAGE WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
00Z, BUT ADDITIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 73 92 73 / 30 10 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 89 71 91 73 / 10 0 10 30
CROSSVILLE 81 66 86 66 / 60 10 40 20
COLUMBIA 88 70 91 71 / 30 10 30 20
COOKEVILLE 83 68 87 69 / 40 10 30 20
JAMESTOWN 83 66 86 68 / 50 10 40 20
LAWRENCEBURG 86 69 89 70 / 40 10 30 20
MURFREESBORO 88 70 92 71 / 40 10 30 20
WAVERLY 88 70 90 71 / 10 0 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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