259
FXUS64 KOHX 102338
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
638 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW, WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING PRIMARILY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND ADJACENT AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
- WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW, LOCALIZED
FLASH-FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
- EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BUT
EXCESSIVE HEAT WON'T BE A FACTOR ANYTIME SOON.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH HAS SLIPPED TO THE EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO WE
ARE NOW UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED
OUT SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY, MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE OHX SOUNDING IS STILL A
ROBUST 1.71" (DOWN FROM 1.97" YESTERDAY MORNING), WHICH IS JUST
ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, SO THERE IS PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE LEFT OVER. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE DOWN
SOMEWHAT, BUT THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ADJACENT AREAS, AND THE
SAME SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO HOLD UP TOMORROW. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY
WEAK -- 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ~400 MB, SO THERE
IS AN INCREASED RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH-FLOODING WITH ANY STORMS
DUE TO EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY/UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO
APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTHWEST, SO THAT WILL HELP TO
FOCUS MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN OUR STILL-UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WE EXPECT OUR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
STARTING ON SATURDAY, AND MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY, WE AREN'T
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 8. TEMPERATURES
APPEAR TO STAY JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MAYBE NEXT
THURSDAY, WITH THE 13Z NBM SHOWING TEMPERATURES STARTING TO BACK
OFF LATE NEXT WEEK. (THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK DOES FAVOR NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.) HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
AT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS. SO THAT MEANS SOME DISCOMFORT, BUT
CERTAINLY NOTHING HAZARDOUS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR TAF EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THREW IN SOME VCSH FOR CSV UNTIL 05Z FOR SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
THERE IS A 60% PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT FOR THE PLATEAU
AT CSV/SRB WITH LOWER CIGS FOR BR/BRFG. VIS WILL CLEAR BY 13Z WITH
ALL SITES BECOMING VFR AGAIN. PROB30 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES FROM 18Z-23Z FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 92 73 94 / 0 20 10 50
CLARKSVILLE 71 91 73 92 / 0 10 10 50
CROSSVILLE 66 85 67 87 / 10 30 10 60
COLUMBIA 70 90 71 92 / 10 30 20 60
COOKEVILLE 68 87 70 87 / 10 20 10 50
JAMESTOWN 67 86 69 87 / 10 20 10 50
LAWRENCEBURG 69 89 70 91 / 10 30 20 60
MURFREESBORO 70 91 72 93 / 0 30 10 60
WAVERLY 69 91 72 92 / 10 20 10 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....13
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