406
FXUS64 KOHX 111730
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEST
CHANCES ARE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE LOW 100S AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE BUSY AROUND
NOON CURRENTLY, WITH PWS ABOVE 1.5" ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN THIS AREA,
WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE, A PRETTY TYPICAL
SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RELATIVELY CALM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MIDDLE TN
WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST, WITH COOLER TEMPS (UPPER 60S) OVER THE
PLATEAU.
FOR TOMORROW, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE MORE NUMEROUS
AS PWS INCREASE AREA-WIDE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE WE ONLY
GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH,
THERE'S ENOUGH EXTRA FORCING TO INDICATE BETTER COVERAGE AND
PERHAPS SOME MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND COLD POOLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WHICH IS MAINLY INHIBITED BY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND <15
KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR CONTINUED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. SUNDAY COULD ONCE
AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING IN THE AREA NEAR AHEAD OF
THE STALLING, DIFFUSE FRONT TO OUR NORTH, AS WELL AS THE APPROACH
OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. WE'LL SEE SIMILAR
IMPACTS WITH ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS, AND PERHAPS, SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE ANY TRAINING SHOULD OCCUR.
NEXT WEEK FAVORS A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND AS
RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE THE MID 90S
FOR NASHVILLE AND SURROUNDING AREAS BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED BY HUMID CONDITIONS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES EACH DAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 90S
TO THE LOWER 100S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5KTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A PROB30 IN
PLACE FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT CKV FOR SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-STATE THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF BY 00-01Z. UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS
NEEDED FOR ANY CHANGES IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCT CUMULI AROUND
4000-5000 FT SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING, RISING TO FEW CLOUDS
AROUND 12000 FT. BY 05Z, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE SRB & CSV
VICINITIES, LASTING UNTIL 14Z. TOMORROW MORNING, BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 25000 SHOULD DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 95 74 93 / 10 30 20 60
CLARKSVILLE 74 93 74 91 / 10 40 30 60
CROSSVILLE 67 88 67 88 / 20 50 10 60
COLUMBIA 71 93 72 93 / 20 30 20 60
COOKEVILLE 70 89 69 88 / 20 40 20 60
JAMESTOWN 68 88 69 88 / 20 40 20 60
LAWRENCEBURG 70 92 70 92 / 20 40 20 60
MURFREESBORO 72 94 72 93 / 10 30 20 60
WAVERLY 72 92 71 91 / 10 40 30 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....DR
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