135
FXUS64 KOHX 120441
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEST
CHANCES ARE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
- RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, HOWEVER, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING,GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
- WARMTH CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK, WITH 20 - 30% CHANCE OF
HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, WHICH
WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME AREAS ALONG THE PLATEAU
COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE QUIET.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THANKS
TO MOISTURE INCREASE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A SYSTEM TO OUR NW. WITH
THE FORCING OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WE COULD SEE SOME MORE ORGANIZED
AREAS OF CONVECTION IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW, BUT NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
FOR SUNDAY, PART OF OUR AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THIS IS BECAUSE A SECOND SHORTWAVE, ALBEIT WEAKER,
BEGINS APPROACHING OUR AREA, AS WELL AS A FRONT STALLING TO OUR
NORTH. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN, AND WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING,
GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM STRONGER
STORMS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
RIDGING INTO THE WORK WEEK FAVORS MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DIURNAL
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT HEAT INDICES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 100 DEGREE HEAT INDICES ARE AROUND 20 - 30%
BY MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO WESTERN
TENNESSEE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MODELS
ARE NOT HINTING AT AS MUCH OVERNIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...HOWEVER NOT SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE
PLATEAU..SO HELD ON TO A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VIS FOR CSV/SRB. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO MAKE SURE IT MATERIALIZES AND FOR
TIMING. SCATTERED PROB30 AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURNING A BIT WESTERLY
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 94 74 93 / 10 40 30 60
CLARKSVILLE 73 92 73 91 / 20 50 30 50
CROSSVILLE 67 87 66 87 / 10 60 20 70
COLUMBIA 71 93 71 93 / 20 40 20 60
COOKEVILLE 69 88 69 88 / 10 50 30 60
JAMESTOWN 68 87 68 86 / 10 50 20 70
LAWRENCEBURG 70 92 70 91 / 20 40 20 60
MURFREESBORO 72 94 71 94 / 10 40 20 60
WAVERLY 71 92 71 91 / 10 40 30 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....12
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